Cubs’ Seiya Suzuki emerging after slow start: ‘He’s key in the middle of that order’

PHILADELPHIA — The Cubs signed Seiya Suzuki prior to the 2022 season to a five-year, $85 million contract because they believed he could be one of the centerpieces of an offense they felt would be able to compete as soon as 2023. With the approximately $15 million the Cubs sent to the Hiroshima Toyo Carp for his posting fee, it was nearly a $100 million commitment to a player who had yet to prove himself in the big leagues.

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Some would say it was a risk. But it was a calculated one about which the Cubs felt strongly. They believed they could give him a year with minimal pressure last season to settle in. With that year of experience, they trusted his natural talents would lead the way. That first year was important for Suzuki. Manager David Ross pointed out the cultural adjustment he had to deal with, including food, travel, different time zones and the lack of off days compared to his time in Japan. He became a new dad last year, a change in lifestyle that would impact anyone, but particularly so for Suzuki as he made the transition to MLB.

“He just seems like he’s in a real comfortable place this year,” Ross said. “Now that he’s got some at-bats under him, he’ll continue to have the ups and downs like everyone else. But he’s looked really consistent and is one of the better hitters that we have. Such a good presence in the middle of our order.”

When working to sign him, there were characteristics the Cubs loved about Suzuki, particularly on offense, that were easily translatable to MLB. He rarely swung and missed. He rarely chased pitches out of the zone. And when he connected, he hit the ball hard and usually barreled it up.

“He hits the ball really hard and his swing path is incredible,” hitting coach Dustin Kelly said. “He’s going to find hits even when he’s off the barrel a little bit because his swing is really good.”

Suzuki put together a solid if unspectacular 2022. The attributes the Cubs sought were there and while it wasn’t as consistent a year as he wanted, his 116 wRC+ was a perfectly acceptable debut. But expectations were a little higher coming into 2023. The Cubs were talking about competing and if that were to happen, Suzuki would need to emerge as that cog in the middle of their lineup.

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The start of the season was rocky though. Suzuki was scratched moments before the first spring training game with a left oblique strain and finally returned 12 games into the season. Suzuki homered in his first game back but for the most part, struggled after that. On May 9, he had a wRC+ of 89 and the Cubs’ cleanup hitter just wasn’t producing enough.

Things started to slowly turn around, but there were some big moments when Suzuki didn’t come through. Multiple big situations in Miami stood out, but overall Suzuki was one of the better players on the team when it came to getting hits with runners in scoring position.

The bad moments are the ones that linger though. Not only to fans but to Suzuki, who has shown to be particularly self-critical.

“I think the guys at this level, especially the guys with contracts, they’re hard on themselves,” Ross said. “They have high expectations, expect almost perfection, which is really tough in this game. He’s hit the ball really hard, the quality of the contact has been there.”

By Wednesday, Suzuki was showing signs of breaking out. That evening, he did exactly that, going 3-for-3 with a pair of homers and two walks. His performance was overshadowed by the team blowing a big lead late, but Suzuki was finally looking like the player the Cubs had hoped for when they acquired him.

“He didn’t get to get in the natural normal flow like all of our other hitters did,” Kelly said. “Now we’re starting to get to that. He’s going to hit home runs, we know they’re going to come.”

Not even two weeks after hitting a low point in offensive production, Suzuki is sitting at a 134 wRC+. He’s in the 89th percentile in hard-hit rate, 84th percentile in chase rate and 61st percentile in whiff rate. He’s beginning to barrel the ball more too — 51st percentile — which means his ground-ball rate is going down, a sign that his timing is coming around.

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“His timing has always been the thing,” Ross said. “When he finds that, the at-bat is consistent, he hits the ball hard and he squares it up.”

But Suzuki’s value goes beyond what he does at the plate. His defense in right field has improved significantly this season. According to Outs Above Average, Suzuki was at minus-4 last season and is now a plus-1. Where he seems to really excel is what Statcast defines as “Jump,” which is measured in the feet covered in the right direction. Suzuki rates well in two of the three components — reaction and burst — of the stat and is in the 98th percentile.

“I think his first step has stood it,” Ross said. “It was something we identified and then his pre-pitch routine has been really nice. His aggressiveness and some of the mindset he’s taken out there of first step in, back. I think he’s made some spectacular plays this year going back on balls, coming in and getting better jumps than he had last year.”

Despite bulking up over the offseason, Suzuki has retained his speed. The stats back it up as he’s in the 76th percentile in sprint speed, but he also just shows it regularly on the field. Standing on first base with Patrick Wisdom at the plate Wednesday night, Suzuki was off on the crack of the bat, zooming around the bases headed for third at impressive speed.

It’s not blazing speed, but it’s above average and with what else he brings to the team, it creates a really robust overall player.

“His game’s growing as much as anybody’s,” Ross said. “As good of a player as he is, he’s going to be a staple here for a long time. He’s well-rounded. He has a quickness that is underrated, I think. I think he’ll steal more bases too the more he gets comfortable and gets more trust in seeing those moments and taking advantage of them.”

The Cubs’ offense needs to show more consistency and deliver the big hit more regularly. But those types of things come when the lineup is littered with above-average producers. Overall, the Cubs have a 112 wRC+ as a team with seven regulars (not counting Christopher Morel who only arrived two weeks ago) above 100. Three of the regulars — Suzuki, Ian Happ and Wisdom — are above 130. That, if held over the course of a season, should equal a strong offense.

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With Suzuki producing at a high level, it really changes a lot of what this team can accomplish as a group.

“He’s always working,” Ross said. “He’s in a good place. When he’s like that, you’re going to see our offense put up a lot of good numbers. He’s key in the middle of that order.”

(Photo: Bill Streicher / USA Today)