Lions’ path to the playoffs: How they leapfrog Giants, Seahawks and others

The 2022 NFL regular season is winding down, and the NFC’s wild-card picture remains fuzzy.

Five teams essentially are fighting for the final two wild-card spots. The Eagles, Vikings, 49ers and Cowboys have all clinched playoff berths. The NFC South champion will clinch another spot. However, the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds are very much up for grabs. The Lions hope to secure one down the stretch.

Right now, the Giants (8-5-1) and Commanders (7-6-1) hold the No. 6 and 7 seeds in the NFC, with the Seahawks (7-7), Lions (7-7) and Packers (6-8) on the outside looking in. But these teams all face very different paths to the playoffs.

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If the Lions win out and the Commanders and Seahawks lose one of their final three games, Detroit will be in. That remains the least-complicated road. It would also mean the Lions would end the year winning nine of their final 10 games. That would be nothing short of remarkable, though it would be asking a lot.

There are still ways for the Lions to make the playoffs with a loss, but things are far from settled. Let’s take a look at the teams in the mix and what they must to do to secure a playoff berth.

Detroit Lions (7-7)

Lions' remaining games

DATE	OPPONENT	TIME
Dec. 24	1 p.m. ET
Jan. 1	1 p.m. ET
Jan. 7 or 8	TBA

In terms of strength of schedule, the Lions have the easiest path to the playoffs. The three teams they’ll face to end the year — the Panthers, Bears and Packers — have a combined record of 14-28. That would explain why the projections of The Athletic’s Austin Mock give Detroit a 57.6 percent chance to make the playoffs, which is the second-highest among the five remaining teams listed here.

A win over the Panthers would be massive for Detroit. It would watch its playoff odds climb from 57.6 to 72.8 percent. A loss, meanwhile, would drop that number to 28.7. This week, in particular, appears to be the Lions’ best chance to make a push. If Detroit beats Carolina, the Commanders lose to the 49ers and the Seahawks lose to the Chiefs, the Lions will take control of the No. 7 seed in the NFC.

A Christmas miracle, considering where this team was in late October.

Of course, the Lions must first take care of business themselves. The Panthers are still fighting for the NFC South crown, still playing hard for interim head coach Steve Wilks and still have playmakers who can cause problems for the Lions. Still, the Lions are favored for a reason. They’re the better team on paper.

On New Year’s Day, the Lions will host a Bears team they beat by only one point on the road last month. Mobile quarterbacks have given this defense issues all year and Justin Fields remains a major threat, recently joining Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson as the third quarterback in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards in a season.

Then there’s Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay, who haven’t given up yet. If the Packers win their next two games, and a few things shake their way elsewhere, they could host the Lions in a Week 18 game that might decide a playoff spot. Yes, it’s possible. More on that later.

The Lions need help, but they could get plenty this weekend.

New York Giants (8-5-1)

Giants' remaining games

DATE	OPPONENT	TIME
Dec. 24	1 p.m. ET
Jan. 1	1 p.m. ET
Jan. 7 or 8	TBA

New York’s win over the Commanders on Sunday did wonders for its playoff odds, rising from 23 percent before the game to a whopping 77.6 percent after.

The Giants are now closing in on a playoff spot with remaining contests against Minnesota, Indianapolis and Philadelphia. While a road game against the Vikings could prove difficult, a win this weekend and losses by two of the Lions, Commanders and Seahawks would clinch a playoff berth for New York.

Even if the Giants lose to the Vikings, they’d still have a 71.5 percent chance to make the playoffs. One of their final two games includes a four-win Colts team that most recently found itself on the losing end of the largest comeback in NFL history. Indianapolis has since turned to Nick Foles. Jeff Saturday is running out of answers.

While Jalen Hurts’ injury could complicate the Eagles’ ability to wrap up the NFC’s No. 1 seed before Week 18, the odds are still in their favor — 98.4 percent at the moment and still 92.3 with a loss this weekend, per Mock. That means the Giants could be playing a Philadelphia team resting its starters in the final week. New York’s schedule looks far more manageable with that context, making its playoff path far more plausible.

Washington Commanders (7-6-1)

Commanders' remaining games

DATE	OPPONENT	TIME
Dec. 24	4:05 p.m. ET
Jan. 1	1 p.m. ET
Jan. 7 or 8	TBA

Despite some questionable officiating at the end of Sunday night’s Commanders-Giants game, Washington’s loss looms large in the NFC playoff picture. A win would’ve made for a far easier path, giving Washington some breathing room in the event of a slip-up over the final three weeks. Instead, the Commanders have a daunting road ahead. First up: a trip to San Francisco on Christmas Eve.

Saturday’s game is, on paper, arguably the toughest for any team still fighting for a playoff spot. The 49ers own the NFL’s best defense (No. 1 in total defense and scoring defense), have made it work offensively with three different quarterbacks and are still fighting for seeding in the NFC. The Commanders host the Browns and Cowboys to end the year. The Browns have not yet been eliminated from playoff contention and have won two out of three since quarterback Deshaun Watson returned. While the Cowboys are one of the better teams in the NFC, they could be locked into the No. 5 seed by the final week of the season, thus choosing to rest starters against the Commanders.

Washington still controls its own fate, but its playoff odds are just 38.7 percent. A win bumps that up to 68.5. A loss drops it to 24.6. Every game matters.

Seattle Seahawks (7-7)

Seahawks' remaining games

DATE	OPPONENT	TIME
Dec. 24	1 p.m. ET
Jan. 1	4:05 p.m. ET
Jan. 7 or 8	TBA

Seattle’s Week 15 loss appears to be more damaging than Washington’s in the grand scheme of things. Before last Thursday’s loss to the 49ers, Mock’s projections had the Seahawks with a 61.3 percent chance of making the playoffs. After? Just 19 percent. That should give you an idea of how much each game factors into the bigger picture.

Pete Carroll and the Seahawks will head to Kansas City this weekend, searching for a win against Patrick Mahomes to remain firmly in the mix for a playoff spot. A loss wouldn’t mathematically eliminate the Seahawks but they would need quite a bit of help, should the other teams still in the NFC playoff picture win this weekend. If the Seahawks lose to the Chiefs, their playoff odds would drop from 19 to 11 percent. If they win, their chances rise from 19 percent to 45.8. After the Chiefs game, the Seahawks will face a Jets team with a stout defense. Seattle ends the year against the Rams in Week 18.

The Seahawks remain ahead of the Lions in the standings thanks to a head-to-head win over Detroit in October. However, keep this mind: If the Lions go 2-1 and the Seahawks go 1-2, Detroit would pass Seattle in the standings. Same scenario if the Lions go 3-0 and the Seahawks go 2-1. The Lions just have to be one game better over the final three weeks. Certainly possible.

Green Bay Packers (6-8)

Packers' remaining games

DATE	OPPONENT	TIME
Dec. 25	1 p.m. ET
Jan. 1	4:25 p.m. ET
Jan. 7 or 8	TBA

Don’t count out Aaron Rodgers and the Packers just yet. While their playoff chances remain low — just 7 percent, per Mock — a few wins and some much-needed help could raise things in a hurry.

The Packers have the most difficult playoff path of the five teams listed here. The simplest scenario involves the Seahawks losing one of their final three games, the Commanders losing two of their final three games and the Lions losing two of three — one against the Panthers or Bears and another in Green Bay to end the regular season. It’s on the table until it isn’t.

While the idea of Rodgers and the Pack sneaking into the playoffs sounds too perfect not to happen, Green Bay must play three teams with a .500 record or better in Miami, Minnesota and Detroit. The Dolphins are clinging to the No. 7 seed in the AFC, so wins down the stretch are very much needed. The Vikings will be looking to capture the No. 2 seed in the NFC. And the Lions already beat the Packers once this year. They could need a repeat to clinch a playoff spot.

One loss all but eliminates the Packers from playoff contention. In fact, a loss to the Dolphins this weekend would lower their chances to 1.8 percent. They need to run the table. Does Rodgers have a late-season playoff push in him? Will that Week 18 game decide one of the final spots? We’ll find out.

(Photo of Amon-Ra St. Brown: Nic Antaya / Getty Images)