Lowetide: Will Oilers prospect Phil Kemp have an NHL career?

Edmonton Oilers prospect Phil Kemp is a throwback defenceman devoted to coverage, goal suppression and interrupting opportunities by the opposition.

He is playing in an era that values speed, quick retrieval and transition and avoidance of long stretches playing defence.

Is he a man born in the wrong era, best suited to the style played 30 years ago? Is there a window of opportunity for him to make the NHL and have a career?

Before the draft

Kemp was drafted out of the U.S. National Development Program with some solid bullet points on his resume. He was 6-foot-3, 201 pounds on draft day, defence-first, good shot blocker, never gave up on a play. He had a reputation for being an intelligent player who could read and react quickly. Not known for spectacular plays, Kemp was economical in his positioning and had success during his three college seasons.

Yale man

The Kemp story got some traction once he landed at Yale. He received an invite to Team USA’s training camp for the world juniors, showed well, and would eventually play in the tournament in 2019. He famously saved a goal on a shot from Klim Kostin as it was finding its way to the net, adding to his defensive reputation.

As a freshman at Yale, he surprised no one by winning ice time with strong defensive play. He did raise some eyebrows with more offence (3-5-8 in 26 games) than his USHL numbers implied.

He played three seasons at Yale, showing good defensive acumen, surprising offence and catching the eye of Craig Button, who said he had NHL potential.

On the downbeat, Kemp exited college without a specific area of strength, the sort of trait that could get him to the NHL quickly. He is not a burner but gets around well enough. He doesn’t run over opponents but can play a physical game. He is not a spectacular rusher of the puck but passes well and has an excellent shot from the point.

Entering pro, it was clear Kemp was going to have a prolonged AHL audition.

Kemp as an AHL rookie

Kemp would have played his senior year as captain at Yale, but the pandemic cancelled the season and when the Oilers came calling with a contract offer in November 2020, Kemp signed it. For any seventh-round pick, an NHL contract is a victory.

Kemp, a right-handed shutdown blue with size, was on the road to the NHL.

The 2020-21 season was just 39 games in length for the Bakersfield Condors due to the pandemic. Kemp spent the first portion of the year in Sweden’s second league (Allsvenskan) but returned to North America in time to play 12 AHL games.

Kemp’s reputation from his college days as a shutdown defender was reflected in his performance with the Condors. Among Edmonton’s defence prospects, he had the best even-strength goal differential and the lowest overall offence (points per game):

Player	EV Goals	Goal Pct	Pts-Game
Max Gildon	32-16	67	0.59
Theo Lennstrom	18-12	60	0.37
Yanni Kaldis	16-11	59	0.25
Phil Kemp	7-5	58	0.08
Markus Niemelainen	17-17	50	0.29
Kevin Gravel	28-28	50	0.22
Vincent Desharnais	24-24	50	0.27
Ryan Stanton	24-28	46	0.37
Mike Kesselring	11-14	46	0.14

Markus Niemelainen and Vincent Desharnais played more prominent roles for Bakersfield in 2020-21, and both Kemp and Mike Kesselring spent their first games in the AHL playing depth roles. It was a brief and interesting introduction to the league for Kemp, who showed (in a small sample) he could hold his own.

The 2020-21 campaign didn’t offer the Oilers a true read on the quality and depth on defence due to the pandemic. Several prospects stayed in Europe for the entire season, but the following year would offer a much different view of the organization’s depth chart on defence.

Year 2

The 2021-22 Condors boasted an impressive group of NHL prospects on the blue line. Edmonton’s 2019 first-round selection, Philip Broberg, had a strong year at both ends of the ice and impressed immediately.

Dmitri Samorukov returned after a year in Russia, and had a strong season, too.

Among righty blue, it was Desharnais who stepped up with an enormous season, emerging as the top right-handed defender in the system.

Player	EV Goals	Goal Pct	Pts-Game
Philip Broberg	30-15	67	0.74
Vincent Desharnais	68-35	66	0.41
Dmitri Samorukov	47-35	57	0.35
Mike Kesselring	40-30	57	0.24
Phil Kemp	29-25	54	0.16
Yanni Kaldis	31-27	54	0.58
Markus Niemelainen	28-25	53	0.24
William Lagesson	7-13	35	0.18
Filip Berglund	31-28	53	0.11

After Desharnais, the Condors ran on the right side with Kesselring, Kemp and Filip Berglund (also over from Europe) in a suddenly impressive group at the position. Kesselring had the more impressive season, and emerged as the most likely to spike and possibly play in the NHL.

Kemp had a season that looked very much like his rookie year. Not exactly running in place, as the level of competition increased because the entire AHL was in action. Kemp showed he could play in the AHL as a regular, and spent time on the Bakersfield penalty kill.

On the left side, three legit prospects (Broberg, Samorukov and Niemelainen) announced their presence and all pushed to the NHL in 2021-22.

This season

The Condors entered the season with Desharnais recovering from injury. NHL veteran Jason Demers (who spent 2021-22 in the KHL) was signed to a PTO and eventually a two-way NHL deal to fill in for Desharnais.

It has been a season of growth. Desharnais punched his ticket to the NHL, Kesselring blossomed as a goal scorer and an agitator.

Kemp? He remained steady defensively and spiked offensively as he had in college.

Player	EV Goals	Goal Pct	Pts-Game
Phil Kemp	30-25	55	0.3
Markus Niemelainen	11-9	55	0.33
Vincent Desharnais	7-6	54	0.15
Max Gildon	19-18	51	0.39
Mike Kesselring	38-38	50	0.46
Jason Demers	28-34	45	0.39
Yanni Kaldis	18-26	41	0.47
Philip Broberg	2-3	40	0.57

The Condors are running Kesselring and Kemp more this season than in the past, partly due to Demers foot speed and chaotic play.

For Kemp, his role as a shutdown defenceman on the team is established, but the offensive output is perhaps the most interesting development on his resume.

Why? In order for Kemp to make the NHL as a regular, moving the puck is vital. Kemp showed hints of those skills early in college and they are finding life in pro hockey. One shouldn’t expect Evan Bouchard-level production, but Kemp is in a range that makes a third-pairing opportunity plausible.

Ken Holland

Kemp has some issues as a prospect. He isn’t a speed demon, and is unlikely to deliver top-four minutes as an NHL player.

He can play defence, is solid in coverage, disciplined, physical and an excellent positional defender.

Perhaps his biggest positives are the presence of Ken Holland as general manager and Jay Woodcroft-Dave Manson as the coaching tandem in Edmonton.

Holland is a patient general manager and is a devotee of the draft and AHL player development specifically. Desharnais is a recent and obvious example of the Holland style, a player like Kemp could be the next player in the pipeline for Edmonton.

That Woodcroft and Manson are coaching the Oilers now is a major lift for all Condors who played while the two men were in Bakersfield. That includes Kemp.

Entering pro hockey, a reasonable description of Kemp would have been a classic shutdown defender who isn’t getting noticed when things are going well in his quadrant. A recent Oilers comparable would be William Lagesson, who also played in the USHL, NCAA and Sweden.

Kemp has added enough offence (he projects to eight goals and 21 points in a full 72-game AHL season) to make things interesting.

The added offence, the presence of Holland and the coaching staff, and Kemp’s handedness (he’s a righty) make him intriguing.

Kemp’s entry deal expires after this season, but Holland has shown a willingness to re-sign players exiting their entry-level deals, even if an NHL job the following season is uncertain. Tyler Benson would be a recent example.

Will Kemp have an NHL career? He’ll have an excellent shot with Holland’s Oilers.

(Photo: Sergei Belski / USA Today)