Mavericks mailbag: What does Dallas’ offseason mean for Luka Dončić’s future? Does Tim Hardaway Jr. stay?

This is our second installment of a Mavericks mailbag, one which addresses Luka Dončić’s ball dominance, how it relates to Josh Green and Kyrie Irving, whether Tim Hardaway Jr. will remain on the team and more of my reflections on whether this summer was a success. We gathered the questions here, and I’ve answered most of the most popular topics that you all brought up between this one and last week’s article. Please note that some questions have been slightly edited and condensed for clarity.

History T. asks, “Can Luka share the ball with another ball dominant guard?”

This is a condensed version of History’s question, which appropriately included a reference to Walt Frazier and Earl Monroe. Now that’s some history, alright.

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Yes, he can. Dallas averaged 121.7 points per 100 possessions with Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving on the floor together last season, according to Cleaning the Glass, which would have been the league’s best offense over the entire season. Yes, there were some your-turn-my-turn possessions. Yes, there were some awkwardly deferential end-of-game plays. Yes, Dončić needs to be better off the ball and the Dallas coaching staff needs to find better ways to involve those two together, even if there are reasons why the Dončić-Irving pick-and-roll isn’t as obvious of an option as it seems. But we’re talking about incremental advantages that can be achieved with those two playing together, not a fundamental conflict that limits either one from being their best.

Those small margins will matter in tight playoff matchups much more than the regular season, and that’s why Dallas needs to work out those issues in the first 82 games — or 83 now, possibly? — to maximize the team’s chances for another feisty postseason run. But I don’t worry about those two together next season on that end, as long as they’re both on the court.

Thomas C. asks, “The big question I was wondering about this offseason is not if the Mavs have done enough to become title contenders, but whether they have done enough to retain Luka.”

We can’t yet know that.

Dončić is currently happy in Dallas. I’ve written this before, but I think his commitment to the Mavericks is somewhat binary. He’ll be happy until he’s not, and then he might want to leave, but he doesn’t right now. I don’t think there’s a Doomsday Clock that ticks toward the end of the Mavericks’ world, which would be Dončić’s desire to leave. I’m not sure he’d ever request a trade away from Dallas — I can’t know this, but it’s my hunch.

The front office might have to intuit the possibility that he would leave in 2026 free agency and decide whether trading him proactively would be best.  But that’s only if the team fails to put a title contender around him, and that’s why we can’t yet know this. The team has two full years before that question could become relevant.

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What Dallas did this summer is set itself up for a future move that could cement itself as a title contender. Next summer, Dallas could theoretically offer this trade package:

This is a hypothetical offer that includes everything, and I don’t mean to suggest that this is Dallas’ preferred team-building path. Just that, when Jalen Brunson left for nothing last summer, it was hard to imagine Dallas retooling its roster with this many trade-attractive pieces so quickly.

Still hypothetically, I’m not sure any player who could realistically be available would be worth such a kitchen sink offer. The exception is if Giannis Antetokounmpo desires to leave Milwaukee, but I don’t think Dallas’ offer would hold up in a legitimate Antetokounmpo market, either. Hardy is the only prospect of those four with a ceiling high enough to turn into the “budding young All-Star” centerpiece that these trades typically include, and he might not even be in the permanent rotation next season if Tim Hardaway Jr. isn’t moved. The Mavericks’ picks lose value if their future becomes more certain, which would certainly occur if they added Antetokounmpo to the roster. Again, I’m using Antetokounmpo as a hypothetical stand-in for one potential future scenario — one of thousands that are possible.

As it stand, it seems likelier that Dallas’ win-now, we-believe-this-makes-us-a-contender move would be for a third-best player and include some of the team’s pieces of value rather than all. The team’s picks will be more attractive to other teams around the league as long as the Mavericks’ second-best player is Irving because of his team-imploding track record and the possibility it could lead to Dončić’s departure. But this summer gave Dallas the ability to make such a move sooner rather than later, and the success of that future transaction will be the determining factor for Dončić’s future.

No one, not even him, can yet know what it will be.

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Terrance C. asks, “What on Earth is this team doing with Hardaway? Please tell us it’s not keeping him.”

The Mavericks really believed they would move him this summer, and they still might. I’m not as confident about that as I was entering this summer; I’m now maybe at 51/49 that he’s traded before training camp, although much more certain he’s moved at some point this season. Seth Curry’s addition and Hardy’s need for minutes — it’s possible I feel more strongly about that need than the coaching staff, but we’ll see — really leaves no room for Hardaway, but he’s is still better than both of them. He would and should get minutes over them if he’s on the team next season.

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I’m not sure everyone would agree with that last statement, but the Mavericks scored 124.6 points per 100 possessions when Dončić shared the court with Hardaway, according to Cleaning the Glass. Without him, Dončić-led lineups scored just 114.1 points per 100 possessions. That speaks more to Dončić’s need for a prolific 3-point shooter like Hardaway — someone to take and make the shots he creates, which forces defenses to guard him more honestly — than any specific need for Hardaway himself. I believe Curry and Hardy, along with Grant Williams, can replace enough of Hardaway’s productivity. But if he’s on the roster, he’ll play and deserve to.

Hardaway’s time with the Mavericks has an ending in sight — and, let’s be honest, it has had one — but it could still be a little further away than even the team itself thought entering this summer.

Ryan D. asks, “Any idea on O-Max’s role to start the season?”

I’m pretty confident Prosper will be in the rotation most nights, and that it’ll happen right away. Dallas’ rotation, as currently constructed, needs his off-ball defensive presence and eagerness to attack closeouts. It’s tough to boldly proclaim certainties about a 21-year-old rookie — a spurt of lost shooting confidence might require some time on the bench — but he will get chances. And what we saw in summer league makes me think he’ll keep earning them.

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Chris R. asks, “Why do you think Josh Green regressed after the trade deadline? He seemed a lot more hesitant shooting and had more erratic playmaking.”

I chose Chris’ question to discuss Green more broadly, but there were also several questions simply asking whether the Mavericks and Green would reach an extension this summer. I don’t have any information to share about that, but it’s logical to expect it. Austin Reaves’ contract — four years, $56 million — feels like a reasonable starting point to me. Unless Green feels strongly that he should bet on himself this coming season, I’d imagine it happens.

Green is a fascinating player. He shot 40.2 percent on 3s but occasionally lost confidence to take them last season. He struggled finishing at the rim in college and then converted 78 percent of his shots within three feet of the basket last season. He’s a brilliant passer who sometimes struggles to get to spots on the floor to make them. He’s probably the best athlete on the roster, but can coast through entire games without providing any indication of it. He’s better served as a secondary ball-handler who defends opposing guards, but Dallas often puts him in a role that’s more akin to a lower-usage 3-and-D wing.

That’s the simplest solution for why Green struggled. He’s a confidence player, one who feels and plays better when he touches the ball more often than he could when playing together with Dončić and Irving. He doesn’t beat players off the dribble consistently, but he knows that. When he’s touching the ball multiple times in a possession, or a dozen times across six of them, he has more freedom to pick his spots to attack. If he’s only getting the ball once or twice during a three-minute stretch — which can happen when playing with two guys who finished fifth and 22nd in touches per game — he tends to become more passive.

For Green to have the most success in Dallas, he needs to become more effective with fewer touches. But there are ways to help him, too. Next season, I would maximize how many minutes Green can play without Dončić and Irving on the court together, especially prioritizing time in Irving-only lineups. Last week, we talked about how the Mavericks’ primary limitation next season is their top-end talent past their two superstars. How far the team can go this season, I think, correlates pretty strongly with whether Green can take the effectiveness we’ve seen him have and condense it into a lower-usage role.

(Top photo of Luka Dončić and Tim Hardaway Jr.: Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images)