Next week’s waiver wire: C.J. Stroud, Rashee Rice and the players to add now — before the Week 3 rush

Read the latest fantasy football waiver wire pickups advice.

Trying to stay in front of an ever-changing fantasy football market is an exercise in both variance and patience. So last week when a rogue commenter accused me of providing zero value… did I go nuclear? No, I sat on my hands. When they said there wasn’t a single name that could conceivably top the initial waiver wire, I exercised restraint.

Well, lo and behold, even if some of the reasoning was off, a lot of the names were target-locked bullseyes. If you jumped on your wire early for Tyler Allgeier, Josh Reynolds, Justice Hill, Joshua Kelley, or Jake Ferguson (among others) you saved yourself a headache plus a pocket full of waiver bucks. In order to stick out from the other seven thousand same-week waiver articles, things may get a little funky from time to time. And that’s okay. We’re also going to have our big misses (Julien Hill, 0 routes) but the cost of acquisition is so low you simply move on without a second thought.

I’m so excited to be back for a second year of speculation at The Athletic; let’s go win some championships. “Next week’s waiver wire headliners today, they said…”

Quarterback

Available QBs With +35 Dropbacks, Week 1

Mac Jones, QB, NE — 58 Dropbacks
C.J. Stroud, QB, HOU — 52 Dropbacks
Bryce Young, QB, CAR — 42 Dropbacks
Ryan Tannehill, QB, TEN — 40 Dropbacks
Baker Mayfield, QB, TB — 38 Dropbacks
Derek Carr, QB, NO — 38 Dropbacks

Available QBs With Positive EPA/Attempt Week 1

Jordan Love, QB, GB — 0.53 EPA/Attempt
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, LV — 0.36 EPA/Attempt
Baker Mayfield, QB, TB — 0.08 EPA/Attempt
Zach Wilson, QB, NYJ — 0.05 EPA/Attempt
C.J. Stroud, QB, HOU — 0.02 EPA/Attempt

Available QBs With +5% Deep Pass Rate Week 1

Jordan Love, QB, GB — 13.3% Deep Pass Rate
Ryan Tannehill, QB, TEN — 10.0% Deep Pass Rate
Baker Mayfield, QB, TB — 7.9% Deep Pass Rate
Bryce Young, QB, CAR — 7.1% Deep Pass Rate
Mac Jones, QB, NE — 6.9% Deep Pass Rate

Of all the positions in fantasy football, quarterback is easily the hardest to recommend due to lack of supply. Also, the number of QBs rostered in 12-team leagues varies greatly depending on the participants. I’ve been in some leagues where the bare minimum of 12 quarterbacks were rostered, while others have a full-blown two dozen. Then there’s always targeting bad defenses, but that limits options even further, potentially corralling you into starting bad players. The aim isn’t to stream but to use analytics to identify values before anyone else — and permanently replace that player. That said, please keep in mind this particular piece is meant to dive deep into the boxscores, focusing downrange into some relative obscurity. If given the opportunity, you should add a consensus QB2 over any of these players.

Using a combination of volume (dropbacks), quality (EPA/Attempt), and depth (Deep Pass%) we have our first short list of QBs worth speculating on. After a bit of culling (sorry Zach Wilson, but no), my favorites are Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, and Mac Jones. Jordan Love and the Packers have the indoor game and softest upcoming schedule (@ATL, NO, DET, @LV), just ahead of the Buccaneers in terms of competition (CHI, PHI, @NO, BYE). As much as I liked the new aggressive style and pace of play from Bill O’Brien and the Patriots, throttle those expectations until next month when the matchups are more advantageous (MIA, @NYJ, @DAL, NO).

UPDATE: Going back and watching tape from this weekend, I want to start a drumbeat for C.J. Stroud. The second overall pick in this year’s draft made several good plays against a good defense, completing difficult throws after positive reads. Houston also looks like they’ll be spending lots of time trailing late and throwing a ton.

Running Back

Available RBs With +30 Snaps Week 1

Kyren Williams, RB, LA — 60 Snaps
Joshua Kelley, RB, LAC — 44 Snaps
Trayveon Williams, RB, CIN — 40 Snaps
Roschon Johnson, RB , CHI — 39 Snaps
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, PHI — 38 Snaps
Salvon Ahmed. RB, MIA — 36 Snaps
Tyjae Spears, RB, TEN — 33 Snaps
Jerome Ford, RB, CLE — 32 Snaps
Jaylen Warren, RB, PIT — 31 Snaps
Chuba Hubbard, RB, CAR — 31 Snaps
Chris Evans, RB, CIN — 31 Snaps

Available RBs With +8 Touches Week 1

Tyler Allgeier, RB, ATL — 18 Touches
Joshua Kelley, RB, LAC — 16 Touches
Kyren Williams, RB, LAR — 5 Touches
Jerome Ford, RB, CLE — 15 Touches
AJ Dillon, RB, GB — 15 Touches
Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI — 11 Touches
Justice Hill, RB, BAL — 8 Touches
Gus Edwards, RB, BAL — 8 Touches

Available RBs With +0.33 Fantasy Points Per Snap Week 1

Tyler Allgeier, RB, ATL — 0.94
Justice Hill, RB, BAL — 0.76
Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI — 0.67
Joshua Kelley, RB, LAC — 0.44
Sean Tucker, RB, TB — 0.44
Gus Edwards, RB, BAL — 0.40
Tank Bigsby, RB, JAX — 0.35
Chris Evans, RB, CIN — 0.35
Chuba Hubbard, RB, CAR — 0.34
Kyren Williams, RB, LAR — 0.33

All the popular mainstream sites are touting the majority of names atop these lists, so cross them off for our purposes. Focusing solely on players rostered in under 30% of fantasy leagues (per Yahoo) I’d first look to secure any players that were already on my preseason radar like Roschon Johnson or Jerome Ford. Johnson showed chops as a receiver out of the backfield and the coaching staff continued to praise his ability to pass protect; something the Bears will be doing a lot of if Week 1 was any indication. Justin Fields appears to have regressed as a passer and the Bears defense gave up 38 points. Yes, Khalil Herbert’s been highly efficient as a runner but no one’s impervious to getting hurt and I don’t think his starting role is guaranteed. There will be games where I expect Johnson to command the lion’s share of snaps based on the game script alone. If you’re in a league deep enough that Johnson’s already rostered, I’d shift focus to stashing Browns rookie RB Jerome Ford. As the only Cleveland running back besides Nick Chubb to see the field in Week 1, Ford’s 15 touches were T-14th in the NFL. His domination of the backup role for one of the better ground attacks in the game offers major potential for contingency value in the future.

Wide Receiver

Available WRs With +33 Routes Run Week 1

Kendrick Bourne, WR, NE — 54 Routes Run
Allen Robinson, WR, PIT — 46 Routes Run
K.J. Osborn, WR, MIN — 44 Routes Run
Kayshon Boutte, WR, NE — 43 Routes Run
Alec Pierce, WR, IND — 41 Routes Run
Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, CAR — 40 Routes Run
Chase Claypool, WR, CHI — 36 Routes Run
Josh Downs, WR, IND — 36 Routes Run
Puka Nacua, WR, LAR — 35 Routes Run
Tutu Atwell, WR, LAR — 35 Routes Run
Van Jefferson, WR, LAR — 35 Routes Run

Available WRs With +6 Targets Earned Week 1

Puka Nacua, WR, LA — 15 Targets Earned
Kendrick Bourne, WR, NE — 11 Targets Earned
Allen Robinson, WR, PIT — 8 Targets Earned
Tutu Atwell, WR, LA — 8 Targets Earned
Josh Downs, WR, IND — 7 Targets Earned
Josh Reynolds, WR, DET — 7 Targets Earned
Demario Douglas, WR, NE — 7 Targets Earned
K.J. Osborn, WR, MIN — 6 Targets Earned
Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, CAR — 6 Targets Earned
Calvin Austin, WR, PIT — 6 Targets Earned
Rashid Shaheed, WR, NO — 6 Targets Earned
Marvin Jones, WR, DET — 6 Targets Earned

Available WRs With +0.50 Fantasy Points Per Route Week 1

Rashee Rice, WR, KC — 0.97 Fantasy Points Per Route
River Cracraft, WR, MIA — 0.87 Fantasy Points Per Route
Puka Nacua, WR, LA — 0.63 Fantasy Points Per Route
Trey Palmer, WR, TB — 0.55 Fantasy Points Per Route
Tutu Atwell, WR, LA — 0.51 Fantasy Points Per Route
Kendrick Bourne, WR, NE — 0.45 Fantasy Points Per Route

Start removing the internet’s most popular adds and the cupboards immediately look pretty bare. Such is the life of the fantasy speculator, I suppose. As always, let’s use a combination of volume (routes), skill (targets earned), efficiency (fantasy points per route), and team context to find that diamond in the rough. If possible, I’d jump at Rashee Rice. Though logging a limited practice Wednesday, there are rumors Travis Kelce could still miss at least one more game. The Chiefs will not be resting on their laurels after an opening week loss and Rice just earned five targets on only 10 routes run. Gaining the trust of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in high-leverage spots could turn this dig into a discovery.

There’s also quite a bit of talk about the Patriots’ pass-catching corps and I totally get it. I rewatched the revamped New England offense and my notebook was full of positive notes. That said, DeVante Parker is expected to return and the only name I’d trust to earn targets going forward is Kendrick Bourne. Since he’s disqualified for instant popularity, I’d pick up Terrace Marshall Jr. Even though I was less than impressed with Bryce Young’s debut, Marshall led all Panthers receivers in snaps, routes, and targets.

Tight End

Available TEs With +75% Route Participation Week 1

Available TEs With +5 Targets Week 1

Zach Ertz, TE, ARI — 10 Targets
Durham Smythe, TE, MIA — 7 Targets
Jake Ferguson, TE, DAL — 7 Targets
Kylen Granson, TE, IND — 6 Targets
Adam Trautman, TE, DEN — 5 Targets

Available TEs With +45 Air Yards Week 1

Luke Musgrave, TE, GB — 72 Air Yards
Durham Smythe, TE, MIA — 59 Air Yards
Connor Heyward, TE, PIT — 57 Air Yards
Zach Ertz, TE, ARI — 56 Air Yards
Ko Kieft, TE, TB — 51 Air Yards
Logan Thomas, TE, WAS — 47 Air Yards

Just missed a call of Ruthian magnitude by correctly identifying the Dolphin TE situation as my target, but whiffing on the player. Many of you who participated in Sunday’s live blog already added Luke Musgrave or Jake Ferguson at tight end, but whoever missed out should add Durham Smythe. He’s the only fringe fantasy player to appear on all three lists and he’s attached to arguably the most explosive offense in the NFL. It’s perfectly reasonable that given the sheer workload and attention the Dolphin WRs command Smythe’s a consistent backend TE1.

Thanks for reading, we all appreciate your support. Please follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for links to the rest of my independent work, including advanced player data sheets, picks, props, and fantasy advice.

(Photo: Quinn Harris/Getty Images)