Next week’s waiver wire: Cam Akers, Wan’Dale Robinson and more players to add now — before the Week 6 rush

I’m using a data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure fantasy football statistics in regard to volume, depth, and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do next week — like C.J. Stroud… and Jerome Ford… and De’Von Achane.

Quarterback

Available QBs With +35.5 Dropbacks Per Game

Available QBs With +2.5 Deep Attempts Per Game (+20 Yards)

Ryan Tannehill, TEN — 4.75 Deep Attempts Per Game
Derek Carr, NO — 4.25 Deep Attempts Per Game
Jordan Love, GB — 4.00 Deep Attempts Per Game
Mac Jones, NE — 3.75 Deep Attempts Per Game
Jimmy Garoppolo, LV — 3.00 Deep Attempts Per Game
Zach Wilson, NYJ — 2.50 Deep Attempts Per Game
Desmond Ridder, ATL — 2.50 Deep Attempts Per Game
Sam Howell, WAS — 2.50 Deep Attempts Per Game

Available QBs With +0.10 Expected Points Added Per Attempt

Baker Mayfield, TB — 0.19 EPA/Attempt
Matthew Stafford, LAR — 0.18 EPA/Attempt
Joshua Dobbs, ARI — 0.16 EPA/Attempt
Ryan Tannehill, TEN — 0.10 EPA/Attempt
Jimmy Garoppolo, LV — 0.10 EPA/Attempt

Only four teams have a Week 5 bye — CLE, TB, SEA, LAC — but you wouldn’t know it given the impact of the missing players. First things first. Make sure Matthew Stafford, the second overall QB in Completions (103) and Passing Yards (1229) is rostered before diving any deeper. The Rams averaging +45 Dropbacks/Game is fantasy gold and he’s on the verge of getting his bestie back. Stafford’s only the fantasy QB22 because his touchdowns are lacking, for now.

After that, I’m shifting to a weekly streaming strategy predicated on defensive matchups. Since it’s so difficult to know exactly what’s available on any particular waiver wire, maybe a good ole’ fashioned ranking is in order. To stay on brand with our running theme of keeping one eye down range, I laid out what you can expect for potential Week 6 streams as well.

Week 5 QB Streams

Sam Howell — WAS vs. CHI
Zach Wilson — NYJ at DEN
Ryan Tannehill — TEN at IND
Joshua Dobbs — ARI vs. CIN

Week 6 QB Streams

Baker Mayfield — TB vs DET
Sam Howell — WAS at ATL
Mac Jones — NE at LV

If you’re forcing me to pick my favorite rest-of-season option, it’s not as much of a slam dunk in favor of Sam Howell as you might expect — I’m actually going back and forth with… Zach Wilson (ducks). Granted, this stance may be deemed objectively foolish by Sunday evening, but I never take my focus off of upside in fantasy football. It’s not even like we need to experience some kind of renaissance and +95th percentile outcome in New York to profit here. Decent play from Wilson is all he’d need given the quality of the surrounding skill players. The biggest problem for Zach Wilson is his schedule. I love the upcoming Week 5 matchup against the Broncos, but after that, it’s the Eagles and then a bye.

Meanwhile, the Commanders have the Bears, Falcons, and Giants coming up, a decidedly easier slate for Howell. The deciding factor was that the Commanders QB finally showed off his wheels (6-40-0) against PHI. So as much as I’d love to break my lifetime bias as a downtrodden Jets fan and support Wilson, if you need a longer-term solution, prioritize Sam Howell.

Running Back

Available RBs With +6.0 Touches Per Game

Available RBs With +0.40 Fantasy Points Per Snap

Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN — 0.81 Fantasy Points Per Snap
Rico Dowdle, DAL — 0.57 Fantasy Points Per Snap
Chris Brooks, MIA — 0.55 Fantasy Points Per Snap
Cam Akers, MIN — 0.51 Fantasy Points Per Snap
Pierre Strong Jr., CLE — 0.49 Fantasy Points Per Snap
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC — 0.43 Fantasy Points Per Snap

Available RBs With +50% Touch Per Snap Rate

Emanuel Wilson, GB — 60.0% Touch Per Snap Rate
Keaontay Ingram, ARI — 59.1% Touch Per Snap Rate
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC — 56.6% Touch Per Snap Rate
Cam Akers, MIN — 50.0% Touch Per Snap Rate

NOTE: While I didn’t feature him, let the record show validation in our process. Jaleel McLaughlin popped up on our lists a couple of times this season before anyone knew he’d be a top waiver add (including me). That said, don’t get too cute. Make sure Zach Charbonnet and Tyjae Spears are rostered before going further. And, sorry, but clearly I am not above taking a W.

Once again our original blend of volume and efficiency metrics yields my two favorite RB spec targets. First up is Cam Akers, who honestly checks a ton of boxes for me. At only 24 years old, he brings second-round draft capital to a high-scoring offense, paired with a bad defense that also plays indoors. Not to mention, Akers is less than a calendar year removed from winning fantasy championships, finishing as the RB1 (65-345-3; 6-63-0) over the final three weeks of the regular season. The Vikings are the NFL’s third-best team in terms of yards per play and could desperately use a boost in efficiency in their run game. Alexander Mattison has been good, but not great (4.5 YPC, 2.8 YAC/Rush), and it may not even take an injury to secure the highest value touches for a (1-3) Minnesota team looking to shake things up.

Fantasy football is a funny game. Sometimes the most visceral reactions to a recommendation are the best indication it’s going to work. Enter Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the former first-round pick and universal fantasy flame-out. CEH finds himself on all three of our lists, earning a spot in this article (and in our hearts). He’s getting volume, whether calculated by totals or rate, and producing when given the chance as the clear backup to Isiah Pacheco. The Chiefs have struggled on offense this season, yet they’re still a Top 10 scoring offense. The point is, we still want to get hitched to their wagon. Chase the ceiling outcome as you churn and add the “Fresh Prince of Helaire” (sorry, I’ll see myself out).

Wide Receiver

Available WRs With +25 Routes Run Per Game, YTD

Josh Downs, IND — 32.5 Routes Run Per Game
Curtis Samuel, WAS — 31.5 Routes Run Per Game
Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR — 30.5 Routes Run Per Game
Calvin Austin III, PIT — 27.5 Routes Run Per Game
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN — 27.3 Routes Run Per Game
Mack Hollins, ATL — 25.8 Routes Run Per Game
Michael Wilson, ARI — 25.5 Routes Run Per Game

Available WRs With +26% Target Per Route Run (min 5 Targets)

Available WRs With +0.25 Fantasy Points Per Route (min 4 Targets)

Marvin Mims Jr., DEN — 0.77 Fantasy Points Per Route
River Cracraft, MIA — 0.43 Fantasy Points Per Route
Khalil Shakir, BUF — 0.40 Fantasy Points Per Route
Brandon Johnson, DEN — 0.37 Fantasy Points Per Route
Rashee Rice, KC — 0.36 Fantasy Points Per Route
Michael Wilson, ARI — 0.35 Fantasy Points Per Route
Kalif Raymond, DET — 0.33 Fantasy Points Per Route
Chris Moore, TEN — 0.27 Fantasy Points Per Route
Braxton Berrios, MIA — 0.26 Fantasy Points Per Route

Not a ton to choose from once you remove our previous headliners like Rashee Rice and Marvin Mims Jr., plus the current flavor of the week, Michael Wilson. Speaking of the former, though he didn’t explode against the Jets, he did lead all KC wideouts in targets and I’m doubling down on the redraft value of Rashee Rice. Make sure he isn’t available before rolling any deeper into the fantasy mud.

This week’s first WR spec play has to be the Giants’ Wan’Dale Robinson. I know, I know… Why are we even looking at the NYG offense after that debacle? They honestly looked like they may never find the end zone again. Well, the answer’s simple: you make the most money buying when there’s a selling panic. Robinson has the draft capital and love of the team, plus he’s finally healthy. He’s quietly led Big Blue in targets, receptions, and receiving yards since returning and should be universally rostered.

Deeper leaguers will need fly-fishing boots to stay dry going after this next one. Staying in the vein of dumpster spelunking, if anyone is within earshot of being as bad as the Giants right now, it’s the Patriots. Funny, we were just here lauding their ability to sling it early on, which has since fizzled, faded, crashed, and burned. Things look supremely bleak in Foxboro, but as they say, someone has to get the ball. Right? Enter Demario Douglas, New England’s sixth-round pick in this year’s draft with a 4.44 forty-yard time and 97th percentile burst score coming off a 79-997-6 season at Liberty College. There hasn’t been a ton of production to date but Douglas appears to be taking over the Patriots’ primary slot receiver role on an offense desperately in need of a jolt. He showed the ability to get loose in the Dallas secondary and make would-be tacklers miss, resulting in a 42-yard chunk play that I’m hoping got Bill Belichick’s attention.

Tight End

Available TEs With +70.0% Route Participation, YTD

Available TEs Earning +4.5 Targets Per Game

Zach Ertz, ARI — 7.5 Targets Per Game
Tyler Higbee, LAR — 6.5 Targets Per Game
Jake Ferguson, DAL — 6.3 Targets Per Game
Jonnu Smith, ATL — 5.0 Targets Per Game
Kylen Granson, IND — 4.8 Targets Per Game
Tyler Conklin, NYJ — 4.5 Targets Per Game
Irv Smith, CIN — 4.5 Targets Per Game

Available TEs With +30 Air Yards Per Game

Zach Ertz, ARI — 57.5 Air Yards Per Game
Tyler Higbee, LAR — 48.3 Air Yards Per Game
Luke Musgrave, GB — 42.0 Air Yards Per Game
Jonnu Smith, ATL — 35.3 Air Yards Per Game
Mike Gesicki, NE — 35.3 Air Yards Per Game
Kylen Granson, IND — 33.0 Air Yards Per Game
Tyler Conklin, NYJ — 30.3 Air Yards Per Game

To those of you who added Jake Ferguson when we recommended it, good form. To the rest of you, good luck. Scoring and talent at the tight end position is so consolidated that the task can feel futile at points — for added perspective, the TE13 and TE22 are separated by a measly three points. Sigh. That said, it will likely behoove us to shift to another matchup-based approach. Here’s the most I can do with what little we got.

Week 5 TE Streams

Week 6 TE Streams

Cade Otton, TB — vs. DET
Logan Thomas, WAS — vs. ATL

Thanks for reading, we all appreciate your support! Be on the lookout for my live fantasy football Q&A blog this Sunday right here at The Athletic. Please follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for links to the rest of my independent work, including advanced player data sheets, picks, props, and fantasy advice.

(Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports)