NFL injury mailbag: Looking ahead to Jonathan Taylor’s return, checking in on Nick Chubb and more

In this week’s column, Greg Scholz speculates as to whether Jonathan Taylor will be able to come back in time to contribute in the fantasy postseason, checks in on Nick Chubb’s rehab timeline … and more.

Before we dive in, here’s a quick glossary of terms commonly used by Inside Injuries:

• IRC = Injury Risk Category (three designations: “Low,” “Elevated,” “High”) — the overall likelihood a player will get injured
• HPF = Health Performance Factor (Peak, Above Average, Below Average, Poor) — our metric to predict player performance
• ORT = Optimal Recovery Time — the amount of time a player needs to fully recover from an injury (not the same as how much time they will actually miss).

Q: Can we expect to see Jonathan Taylor return for Weeks 16 and 17? — Joon W.

Even though thumb surgery sounds pretty serious, Taylor should be available by then.

Advertisement

It’s unclear right now exactly what Taylor’s thumb injury is, but regardless of what it is, thumb injuries don’t have the same impact on running backs the same way they would on someone like a quarterback. Colts head coach Shane Steichen himself said the main concerns with Taylor’s thumb are ball security and pass protection.

Both those aspects of the game are definitely impacted, but for different reasons. Ball security comes down to how Taylor can maintain possession of the ball without pain. Pass protection comes down to how Taylor can jam defenders without causing additional damage to his thumb. There are a few additional aspects at play there, but that’s looking at the big picture.

As for some potential causes, it could be a UCL injury, a dislocation, a fracture, or something with the tendons. No matter what, though, the major focus for recovery post-surgery is ensuring the mobility and strength of the thumb is back to normal.

When Taylor does return, he’ll have an Elevated Injury Risk and an Above Average Health Performance Factor.

Q: What’s the timeline for Nick Chubb? — Frank A.

It’s still early in Chubb’s recovery, but the best case scenario is a rehab plan that lasts 6-9 months. He tore his MCL and meniscus, with additional damage to his ACL. Even though his injury occurred in mid-September, the countdown to his return realistically started just a few weeks ago.

The last update on Chubb came earlier this month when it was reported that he underwent surgery to have his ACL repaired, which should be the last major surgery needed. This means that the absolute earliest Chubb could see NFL-level action would be May of 2024. That timeline is very optimistic and highly unlikely given his injury history.

It’s more likely that Chubb returns sometime closer to August or September of next year. As for his expected production, it’s going to be lower than past seasons. He’ll be another year older and will now have two highly concerning knee injuries on record since 2015. That’s not to say he can’t be productive, though. His rehab and approach will have a major impact on what he can and can’t do in 2024. It’s just important to remember that these things take time.

Advertisement

Q: Any updates on Joshua Palmer and if he’ll be useful before year’s end? — Christopher B.

Palmer has been dealing with a ligament sprain in his knee that has kept him out for the Chargers’ past four games and is likely to keep him out of Week 13 as well.

We predict that Palmer will reach Optimal Recovery ahead of Week 14, so we do expect him back relatively soon, however Chargers head coach Brandon Staley was somewhat dismissive regarding Palmer in recent interviews. Without providing any updates, Staley basically said it’s possible that Palmer returns at some point this season.

One of the major reasons we believe that Palmer will return soon is the fact that there hasn’t been any discussion of surgery. For a knee sprain to require a stint on the IL, it’s likely to be a Grade 2. Of the main ligaments in the knee (ACL, MCL, LCL, PCL), the MCL aligns best with what we know about the injury. I’ll quickly reiterate that the Chargers have not specified that, and it’s a soft assumption we’re making.

If it is indeed an MCL sprain, Palmer should be able to return and be effective this season. If Palmer does return in Week 14 against Denver, his Injury Risk will drop down into Elevated territory, while his Health Performance Factor would be considered Peak.

Q: What is the latest on Aaron Jones? — Dan B.

It’s unlikely he plays in Week 13. Jones is dealing with an MCL sprain, which is yet another lower body injury to add to his worrisome injury history.

The redeeming thing about MCL sprains is that they tend to heal well on their own with conservative treatment. While that means it’s likely Jones returns sooner rather than later, it’s not a good sign when a player seemingly keeps having lower body issues, even if they’re minor.

Right now, our algorithm suggests Jones is 15 days away from Optimal Recovery, meaning we expect him to return in either Week 14 or Week 15. His Injury Risk will be High for the rest of the season and his Health Performance Factor is going to hover in the Below Average range for a week or so.

Advertisement

Q: What’s happening with Darren Waller? Hope he’s resting up! — Walter C.

A few weeks ago, Waller said he felt he was still in the “early phases” of his recovery from the hamstring strain that landed him on IR. There haven’t been too many updates since then, however head coach Brian Daboll said Waller was “getting better” just a few days ago.

Waller’s history with hamstring strains is well documented and it is approaching some very concerning territory regarding his ability to remain healthy for a full season.

When an athlete, especially one of Waller’s caliber, experiences multiple hamstring strains, it often indicates there are deeper issues at play. One of the main things doctors and medical staff would look for is chronic muscle weakness or imbalances. Beyond that, each strain introduces some level of scar tissue, which is less flexible than normal muscle and increases future injury risk. If you’ve read my pieces on Justin Jefferson, you’ll know that this pattern tends to suggest that previous strains weren’t fully rehabilitated.

If something doesn’t change, or the root cause isn’t identified, then it’s likely going to happen again, either in 2023 or 2024. We think he is still a few weeks from Optimal Recovery, his Injury Risk is High, and his Health Performance Factor is Below Average.

Q: How concerned should I be about Tank Dell? — Beth H.

There is some concern surrounding Dell, but nothing too scary as of now.

Dell is reportedly dealing with a calf strain. Most of the time, these injuries heal well on their own and cause no additional problems. That said, as we saw with Joe Burrow earlier this season, sometimes calf strains can linger, especially if they aren’t healed completely.

Our data suggests Dell should sit out Week 13 to ensure his calf is properly rehabilitated. Calf strains, though generally not as problematic as hamstrings, can become a recurring thing if a player is rushed back. This is a similar situation to Justin Jefferson (sorry to bring him up again), but Dell is young, and the last thing Houston should do is have him return too quickly and potentially cause him to have a lingering calf problem for the rest of his career.

Advertisement

Overall, though, the Texans should be more concerned than you. Not due to the severity of the injury, rather the maintenance of it. They need to check every box and be thorough. Right now, his Injury Risk is High, but with a week off it would drop into Elevated. His Health Performance Factor is Above Average, but with a week off it would be Peak.

Q: Any updates on Matthew Judon? Seems like the Patriots season went downhill after he went down. — Niles A.

Yeah, between him and Christian Gonzalez, the Patriots really got hit with some bad luck early on.

As for updates, there aren’t many, but he is tracking well in his recovery with no reported setbacks. He underwent surgery in early October, and the Patriots estimated a two-month absence at the time. If there have indeed been no setbacks, New England could open the window for his return fairly soon. That said, two months is definitely optimistic.

A torn bicep typically refers to a rupture of the biceps tendon. This can occur in two locations, either at the shoulder or the elbow. Judon’s injury required surgery, which indicates it was a complete rupture of the tendon. Generally, this requires around four months to heal completely, but at Judon’s age it could take closer to six. For reference, 24-year-old Rashawn Slater suffered a torn bicep in Week 3 of the 2022 season and didn’t play again until Week 1 of this season.

The good news is that, if healed properly, these injuries don’t tend to impact performance or have any long term complications.

(Photo of Jonathan Taylor: Perry Knotts/Getty Images)