Raptors might be sellers with Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby on the move

On Monday, The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported that teams around the league are anticipating the Toronto Raptors’ moves ahead of the Feb. 8 NBA trade deadline. Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, the former a certain unrestricted free agent this summer and the latter likely to join him, could be among the best players available. Most players who signed deals this offseason will become eligible to be traded Dec. 15, with the final group of players — players who re-signed with their previous teams in the offseason for significant raises — becoming eligible Jan. 15.

Advertisement

With that in mind, The Athletic’s senior writer John Hollinger and Raptors reporter Eric Koreen discussed the finer details of the trade landscape for the two forwards.

Koreen: John, why do I feel like we’ve been here before? It’s trade season*, and the Raptors are one of the most intriguing potential sellers. I guess it’s not deja vu when you can pinpoint exactly when this last happened.

*Never mind that last year, there were two trades made in the entire month of January. We’re going to make trade season a thing, damn it. It’s the “fetch” of the NBA content mill.

Indeed, our colleague Shams Charania reported that other teams believe “now, more than ever” it is likely the Raptors will move one of Siakam or Anunoby (if not both). Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice…

Anyway, there are a couple of things I want to check with you on here, because this is a very interesting situation. The Raptors’ situation seems significantly less complex than those of the suitors.

Briefly: The Raptors owe their own first-round pick in 2024 to San Antonio, protected one through six. (If they land in the top six, the pick, with the same protection, gets kicked until 2025. The same is true for the next year. All things being equal, the Raptors are likely fine conveying the pick this year, in what is considered a weak draft class.) They don’t have the normal seller’s incentive, then, to get bad as soon as possible to improve their lottery position, especially because, as you recently wrote, the bad teams in this league are truly wretched. As of Monday, the Raptors had the ninth-worst record in the league. The Poor Four — Detroit, San Antonio, Washington and Portland — are going to be tough to “catch.” From the Raptors’ perspective, they might as well hold out until closer to the deadline, when they are more likely to get better offers.

Advertisement

I want to question that last assumption. We’ve already seen one team push to get a deal done so they had more time to mesh — the LA Clippers with James Harden. The Play-In Tournament puts pressure on teams with playoff expectations to get a deal done quickly. The three teams mentioned as potential suitors are in very different spots. The Indiana Pacers are having a textbook “Innocent Climb” season, as Pat Riley put it. I’d be very surprised if they get too aggressive this year, especially this far out from the deadline. They could also have max cap room in the offseason. I’m guessing they will have to get a steep discount to make such a big move, even if they suffer the very well-known In-Season Tournament Finalist Hangover. Again, totally a thing.

The Sacramento Kings and Atlanta Hawks, though? Different stories. The Kings are 12-8 and in sixth place in the Western Conference— ahead of the Phoenix Suns, who are getting Bradley Beal back. The Hawks, meanwhile, are 9-12, just ahead of the Raptors, in the final Play-In spot. They’ve been disappointing.

Logic would dictate the Raptors wait and let markets develop. However, do you think there is a chance one of those two teams gets aggressive now? And in the same vein, do you think there is a risk in waiting until closer to the deadline, when those teams could have their fates sealed, one way or another? Do you disagree with the assumption I’ve made about the Pacers?

Hollinger: History says teams in the trade market are a bit like Christmas shoppers. They may claim this year they’re being more assertive and getting their work done early, but in reality, they end up at Circle K at 11:45 p.m. on Dec. 24 because it’s the only thing open and they never bought anything for Aunt Myrtle.

The unfortunate reality from my seven years in the front office is that it takes two to tango on a trade, and most of the other teams aren’t ready to dance until February. Some teams are virtually impossible to complete a deal with at any earlier date, and others are only willing to do so if they can rob you blind.

Advertisement

In terms of Indiana, the Pacers are a perfect theoretical home for Anunoby given his age and ability to help an awful defensive team … but he’s also a flight risk if they trade for him right now. I don’t see Indiana putting enough on the table to tempt Toronto when the Pacers can have max cap room this summer, and I don’t see them as a home for Siakam given his age. I’d expect the Pacers to make calls and kick tires, but there isn’t urgency on their end.

On the other hand, I see less risk in waiting for Toronto because A) other teams could join the fray at some point, and B) these teams would be dealing with more than this season in mind. Any team trading anything of value for Anunoby or Siakam is doing it intending to re-sign them to a long-term deal (or perhaps doing an extend-and-trade in the case of Siakam), and thus their specific position in the standings is of less import than their long-term picture in the out years.

Koreen: People are going to think we planned this out instead of us just figuring this out on the fly, a read-and-react offence, if you will, because you segued into the next issue I want to talk about. Barring signing an extension, Siakam will be an unrestricted free agent in July 2024, and a lot of the reporting around trade talks over the summer indicated he would not be interested in signing an extension if he is traded anywhere. Barring something shocking, Anunoby will opt out of his player option for 2024-25 and become a UFA too. His value far outpaces the $26-million-ish his incumbent team can offer him as the starting salary on a veteran extension.

Raptors fans are familiar with teams essentially trading for a player’s Bird rights. Whatever you think of the deal, the Raptors wouldn’t have been able to sign Jakob Poeltl in the offseason unless they traded for him first. The Norman Powell–Gary Trent Jr. trade from 2021 was true in that manner on both ends of the trade. We all know cap space has become less important to teams as a team-building tool, especially those teams closer to the top of the league. The Philadelphia 76ers are a potential exception to that this coming offseason, but most of the teams that figure to have significant cap space in 2024 are going to either be very young, very bad or both. That is why trading for a player who will become a free agent is often nicknamed pre-agency.

However, you mentioned the risk of flight for Anunoby in a theoretical Pacers trade. The answer to this question will vary based on the player and team, but how much do you believe the Raptors waiting until this point in their forwards’ contracts will impact the return? Is there a type of team that would be more aggressive in trading for a pending free agent than another? The Raptors won’t want to trade either player for the price of a “rental,” but as you say, any team acquiring him has to at least consider the possibility that they will be trading for precisely that.

Hollinger: I see it as a much bigger factor in the case of Anunoby, given the implausibility of extending him. At the last trade deadline, teams were looking at an 18-month runway regardless and would likely have felt better about a big asset play for his rights. Additionally, both Philly and Indiana loom as obvious threats to swoop in with a max or near-max deal if the acquiring team isn’t willing to shell out for him; but is Anunoby worth that kind of contract on top of the draft equity that would be required to pry him from Toronto at the deadline?

In Siakam’s case, he might be able to control his destination a bit by hinting at which places he would or would not sign an extension, but ultimately the ability to do an extend-and-trade is a way for the acquiring team to limit the flight risk. And if such a deal can’t be agreed upon, it’s a solid red flag that the trade isn’t worth pursuing to completion.

Advertisement

In either case, however, I agree with you that nobody is trading for a rental. Trading anything of significance for either of these players only makes sense if they’re going to be long-term pieces.

Koreen: Finally, let’s talk about fit, and let’s talk about Siakam. In Shams’ story, he mentioned other teams believe Siakam is more likely to be traded than Anunoby. I believe that’s true too, both because of the financial realities we discussed and Anunoby fitting better with Scottie Barnes, both from an age and skill perspective, than Siakam.

Here is the rub: Even if Siakam is “better” than Anunoby — and virtually every player ranking says he is — he is also a tougher player to drop onto a roster midseason. Anunoby’s role is a souped-up 3-and-D guy, and that player fits anywhere. Siakam is in the midst of another disappointing shooting season, and he becomes decidedly less valuable if he’s not involved in the primary action of a possession. He is an above-average, but not exceptional, defender. He is an excellent playmaker, but you cannot make plays for others unless you have the ball.

The Hawks have consistently come up as a Siakam team. With Trae Young and Dejounte Murray having better shooting seasons, he makes sense as a fit to me, but matching salary without including Bogdan Bogdanović, a player who makes a lot of sense around that trio, is difficult. (Perhaps De’Andre Hunter comes to Toronto and Clint Capela goes to a third team to clear more playing time for Onyeka Okongwu, bringing back additional salary and assets to the Raptors.) From a pure basketball perspective, the Pacers are my favourite Siakam team. He’s great in transition and would be surrounded by capable shooters. However, he is six years older than Tyrese Haliburton, and I’m not interested in talking about age gaps between a team’s two best players ever again.

Siakam has played commendable basketball this season in a context that is not designed for him to thrive. Even though his individual numbers are not as good as Barnes’, he still drives winning as much as or more than his younger teammate. (Before Monday night’s game against the Knicks, the Raptors were 8.8 points per 100 possessions better when Siakam was on the floor compared to the bench and 5.0 points worse when Barnes was on the floor. Not entirely fair, since Barnes is asked to lift up bench-heavy units far more often than Siakam.) I’m sure Miami will kick the tires, even if it’s not the cleanest fit. Does he make sense for Brooklyn? Julius Randle would act as most of the matching salary in a Knicks trade we could laugh at for years and years and years. (Dibs on doing a “mock trade negotiation” piece.) The Thunder have all of the league’s draft picks.

Does any other team stand out to you? And if you had to guess, what would Siakam end up bringing back for the Raptors? Let’s assume that all things are equal, which they always are.

Hollinger: Let me share a heretical thought: What about Dejounte Murray for Siakam? That would clean up some issues on both rosters, wouldn’t it? The Raptors would likely have to add significant draft capital to a deal like that, since Murray is both younger and is signed to a very reasonable extension, and maybe that’s a dead end since they are already out one future pick and pondering a rebuild. But it’s just a thought bubbling through my head.

Advertisement

Back to reality … as a frequent Hawks watcher, I have to admit the idea of Siakam in Atlanta is interesting. He gives them both a playmaker when Young is off the floor and a play finisher while Young is on it, and his defense will be a net positive on an awful defensive team. The Hawks have a more glaring weakness at small forward than power forward, which makes you wonder about Anunoby in Atlanta as well.

If we imagine that Atlanta and Siakam can agree on terms of an extend-and-trade deal, the two big issues that get in the way of a Hawks deal are draft capital and the luxury tax. Atlanta can only send its own first in 2029 or 2030; it also has a protected Sacramento first-round pick that is likely to convey in 2024. Is that enough return for Siakam? Does Kobe Bufkin or a few second-round picks move the needle at all? Can they include Mouhamed Gueye to confuse the hell out of 905 fans?

Atlanta would very, very, very strongly insist that Hunter be in the deal (just doing that might improve them as much as acquiring Siakam, he said while dodging a lightning bolt), which means one of Bogdanović or Clint Capela would have to be the second player to match Siakam’s salary. (The Raptors would also undoubtedly ask for Jalen Johnson; the Hawks would just as certainly ask them to take a hike.)

The dilemma for Atlanta is, if the Hawks do this type of deal and then re-sign Siakam and Saddiq Bey, they will be many millions into the luxury tax next year. Of course, Atlanta faces that situation vis-à-vis Bey (or signing a replacement) even with the current roster, but locking in Siakam at $40 million a year or whatever his price will be only calcifies that situation.

So here’s where I end up: an extend-and-trade deal that sends a lightly protected 2029 first, the Kings pick, Bogdanović and Hunter to the Raptors for Siakam and Christian Koloko. The Hawks could trade Capela or Okongwu after the season, sign Bey, get under the tax and get on with their lives. The Raptors would get draft equity and start on their way to cleaning up project 6-9.

Is that worth it to take on nearly $40 million in salary for the next two years? I’m not sure, but that’s probably the type of deal they’re looking at, whether with Atlanta or some other playoff team understaffed at the four like the Kings or Heat. It’s the only practical way to fit Siakam’s projected salary into the payroll of an already good team. Miami is stuffing Duncan Robinson into any deal, Dallas is dropping Richaun Holmes and Tim Hardaway Jr. off on your doorstep, Brooklyn is introducing you to the Ben Simmons Experience, etc., etc.

The Raptors can perhaps hope that a Nikola Vučević-type ridiculous trade materializes that hands them lottery picks and a young player, but the more realistic outcome has them looking at some tough choices.

Advertisement

Koreen: Funnily enough, I thought Murray for Anunoby would be an interesting challenge trade at this time last year. It makes less sense now, for all the reasons we have discussed. I can’t see the Raptors sending more picks out this year, although I have been wrong about that before.

You landed right around where I figured this would end. Maybe you throw in an AJ Griffin here or a second-round pick there, but the final package would include matching salary, one draft pick with high-end potential and another asset of some value (be it a player or pick).

On the other hand, there figure to be more buyers than sellers at the deadline, so perhaps the price increases. After watching Fred VanVleet leave for the ability to sign Dennis Schröder and Jalen McDaniels, the Raptors need to get back in the asset-collection game — even if they don’t get quite as much as they would like for their best player.

(Top photo of OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam: Vaughn Ridley/NBAE via Getty Images)