Rookie revelations: How C.J. Stroud compares to Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck
Aria Murphy
Published Apr 07, 2026
(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Nov. 20, 2023.)
The Houston Texans are 6-4 with a rookie quarterback and a top-10 offense after winning 11 games over the previous three seasons. That puts C.J. Stroud on an impressive short list with Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck. Here’s how those four stand apart.
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Stroud was intercepted three times and left the Texans’ 21-16 victory against the Arizona Cardinals for one play after absorbing a jarring hit in the third quarter.
shot out of a cannon 😤@jt_broooo x #BirdGang
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) November 19, 2023
The rookie first-round pick endured to collect his sixth victory in 10 starts. To say he was unfazed would be an understatement.
“Steph Curry don’t ever stop shooting,” Stroud said after the game, “so I’m gonna keep letting it ride.”
Steph Curry 🤝 C.J. Stroud
— Warriors on NBCS (@NBCSWarriors) November 19, 2023
For the season, Stroud ranks third in yards per attempt (8.3), sixth in EPA per pass play (0.15) and first in pass completions gaining more than 15 yards (70). Seven other quarterbacks since 2000 have completed more than 70 explosive pass plays through the first 10 games of a season, per TruMedia. Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes and Philip Rivers headline that list. Stroud’s 31 explosive pass completions over his last three games are more than the Steelers (29) and Panthers (26) have totaled all season.
The combination of individual production, team success and year-over-year team improvement puts Stroud on a short list of rookies. Prescott (2016), Ryan (2008) and Luck (2012) also fit the profile. Here’s how I narrowed down the list from 35 initial candidates:
Starting right away: Stroud is one of 35 rookie quarterbacks to start the first 10 games of an NFL season, per Pro Football Reference.
Winning right away: Of those 35 rookie starters, Stroud is one of nine whose team had a winning record after 10 games. Prescott (9-1), Kyle Orton (7-2), Mac Jones (6-4), Russell Wilson (6-4), Joe Flacco (6-4), Andy Dalton (6-4), Luck (6-4) and Ryan (6-4) also met this criteria.
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Major team turnaround: Of the remaining nine, Stroud is one of seven whose team in its first 10 games exceeded its win total from the previous full season. Wilson and Jones fell from the list.
Top 10 offense: Prescott’s Cowboys (fifth), Ryan’s Falcons (8th), Stroud’s Texans (9th) and Luck’s Colts (10th) ranked among the top 10 in offensive EPA per play through 10 games. This requirement eliminated from consideration Dalton with the Bengals (20th), Flacco with the Ravens (22nd) and Orton with the Bears (29th).
The table below stacks the final seven by where they ranked in EPA per pass play 10 games into their rookie seasons. The line separates the final four.
| QB (Yr) | W-L | OFF Rnk | EPA/PP Rnk |
|---|---|---|---|
Dak Prescott (2016) | 9-1 | 5 | 2 |
C.J. Stroud (2023) | 6-4 | 9 | 6 |
Matt Ryan (2008) | 6-4 | 8 | 7 |
Andrew Luck (2012) | 6-4 | 10 | 12 |
Andy Dalton (2011) | 6-4 | 20 | 18 |
Joe Flacco (2008) | 6-4 | 22 | 26 |
Kyle Orton (2005) | 7-3 | 29 | 30 |
Final order: Sorting the final four by their teams’ preseason Vegas win totals leaves Ryan (4.5), Luck (5.5), Stroud (6.5) and Prescott (8.5). If you want to sort them by EPA per pass play, the order would switch to Prescott (second), Stroud (sixth), Ryan (seventh) and Luck (12th).
It’s one way to balance personal and team accomplishments for rookies playing the most important position.
Ben Roethlisberger does not appear here because he did not start the Pittsburgh Steelers’ first two games in 2004. Pittsburgh started 9-1 that season after finishing the previous season 6-10. The Steelers, with a 7.5 preseason Vegas win total, were 13th in offensive EPA per play through 10 games.
(Photo: Tim Warner / Getty Images)
