SEC football mailbag: Would Missouri ever consider switching conferences (again)?

In the midst of spring practice, you all asked excellent questions about the programs at Florida, South Carolina and Kentucky, playing spring games against XFL teams, and what future SEC games we should look forward to. Great questions, and I got to them all.

But a wise man once told me: Always lead with realignment, even if totally speculative, hypothetical and not happening. Whatever. Lead with realignment.

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With a rejuvenated Big 12 looking to expand further, might it benefit Mizzou to consider returning there, since they seem unlikely to ever get near the top of the SEC? Or is the revenue difference worth their second-tier status?

Robert T.

Now this is a great curveball, because as much as Missouri still seems out of place in the SEC (at least to some people), it’s the Big Ten where those people think Mizzou is a more natural fit. In fact, it’s generally assumed the school was angling for the Big Ten during the 2010/2011 realignment wars, and that only when it didn’t look like an invitation was forthcoming did Missouri agree to accompany Texas A&M to the SEC. If Missouri had waited, would it have gotten the Big Ten’s invite in late 2012 instead of Maryland or Rutgers? That’s hard to say because at that point it was almost all about TV markets, and although Missouri could say it has a chunk of the St. Louis and Kansas City markets, the Big Ten was, rightly or wrongly, allured by the potential of the New York and Washington/Baltimore markets.

This time around, it’s more about brands. Missouri could go, but unless it went to the Big Ten — where an invite still does not seem forthcoming — then it would be giving up a lot of money to leave. How much money? If you use just the TV money, the SEC’s average payout is set to be around $58 million under the current parameters of the ESPN contract, while the Big 12’s average payout will only be around $28 million – and that was considered a good get by first-year commissioner Brett Yormark.

Suffice to say, that’s a lot of annual money to walk away from if you’re Missouri. How much would it recoup by presumably being more competitive in the Big 12? Perhaps some more visibility, which would lead to the benefits that programs like TCU are hoping to use to become sustained powers. That would be a calculated risk, with some justification: Missouri would be the second all-time winningest program in the new Big 12, behind only West Virginia, while it will rank 11th in the new SEC. But it’s hard to argue right now that Missouri isn’t also behind TCU, Oklahoma State and Baylor, as well as incoming Cincinnati and maybe BYU. Certainly, Missouri would have an easier path, but not that much easier.

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It still seems more about Missouri itself, and whether it can hire the right coach — maybe it already has in Eli Drinkwitz, I don’t know — commit enough resources and get some luck. This is a program that came one win away from making the BCS championship in 2007 and won the SEC East in 2013 and ’14. In the age of the 12-team College Football Playoff, you won’t have to be the best team in the conference to get in. You can sneak in with a very good year, then try to build on that. The exchange of rivalry games would also be a wash: Missouri would get Kansas back, but it would lose Arkansas, and it’s just about to get Oklahoma back.

One of the main reasons Missouri has felt out of place in the SEC is that it was out of place in the SEC East. But divisions are about to go away, and Mizzou’s schedule is about to make much more sense. Between that and the money, there just isn’t any reason for Missouri to walk away — unless the Big Ten came calling.

Could SEC schools scrimmage XFL teams for their spring day? Which teams could win?

Joseph F.

Thank you for another curveball. This is the time of year that people — coaches, media members, message board poster Sliced Bread — suggest that spring games turn into exhibition games against other teams. Hugh Freeze this week threw out the idea of Auburn and Alabama playing UAB and Troy. But I haven’t heard the idea of playing teams from the XFL (or throw in the USFL). Kudos.

It’s also an intriguing question who would win. The worst NFL team would always beat the best college team, and not just because of talent. Even in the NFL, where coaches and rosters turn over every year, there is enough continuity that it is still a team. There’s a system in place. The other pro leagues, however, are too fly-by-night to maintain any continuity. The playbooks are much thinner, the familiarity within the team too scant. So I’d be willing to bet that a Top 25 college team would beat the best XFL or USFL team more often than not. And an average SEC team would also be favored.

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Kentucky vs. the Birmingham Stallions. I’d watch that. Maybe some enterprising TV executives need to get on it.

As for the Freeze idea, or any of the usual ideas, I’ve always been skeptical. The main reason is that coaches and administrators, especially at the bigger schools, tend to really like the intrasquad game setup. They can fill their own stadium, the coaches use it as a recruiting event, the two hours serve as an infomercial for the program, and everyone on the roster can play. It’s a chance for the walk-ons or little-used scholarship players to actually play in front of fans. An intrasquad game is double the player reps you would get playing somebody else.

This isn’t to say it will never happen. It’s just never been tried, to my knowledge, by a major program, or even a minor one. If someone finally did, it would be closely watched and could spread. Or it could be greeted with a collective “Nah.”

Will UK with Devin Leary be better than they ever were with Will Levis (when the Cats went 7-6)?

Matt R.

It’s a real possibility, and that’s not a knock on Levis. (Despite my skepticism of Levis as a first-round NFL Draft pick.) For one thing, Leary could be pretty good in his own right. For another, Kentucky brings back Liam Coen as offensive coordinator, and it’s reasonable for Wildcat fans to hope he can harness the talent Leary showed during his 2021 season at NC State (35 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 3,433 passing yards, 65.7 completion percentage). Kentucky does return eight other offensive starters, so that’ll help, too.

That said, Kentucky hasn’t shown me enough yet to label them as a dark horse in the last year of the SEC East. At best, it seems to be the third-best team in the division after Georgia and Tennessee. Mark Stoops has built a really solid program, but in order to break through the Wildcats may need to rely less on coaching and more on getting top-notch talent: Even with Levis, last year’s team was 26th in the 247Sports overall team talent rankings. This year’s recruiting class was ranked 31st.

Still, Kentucky seems satisfied with solid, giving Stoops a raise up to $9 million per year through 2030. And it should be satisfied with the state of its football program. Maybe not thrilled, but satisfied.

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What’s your definition of a “good season” for South Carolina? Obviously going 8-4 with wins against UTK and Clemson is something we’re all happy about but with our schedule, how do Gamecock fans define success in a year where 4 losses may happen again?

Jacob S.

Spencer Rattler’s return ups the ante a bit, but not to “win the East” level. As with anything, a good season is more about “feel” than actual record. If you asked the average SEC fan what South Carolina’s record has been the last two years, they may not nail it. But ask them if Shane Beamer is off to a good start, and they’ll all say yes. (Assuming they’ve been paying attention.) So I could throw out 9-4 as the mark for a good season, but it would depend more on what games are won, how competitive the team is, etc.

I can also right away see four games in which South Carolina will be the likely underdog: at Georgia, at Tennessee, at Texas A&M and home against Clemson. But every other game looks very winnable, including Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, a trip to Missouri and the season opener against North Carolina in Charlotte. But those five are also very losable. If the Gamecocks are good this season, they could run the table on those five, as well as the other winnable ones, and maybe sneak in a win on the first four, and it would be a tremendous season. If the Gamecocks are merely average, they could end up 7-6 or 6-7. Or worse.

Beamer is building a good program there. The recruiting has been solid (the 2023 class finished ranked No. 16), and his public persona is good for that fan base. They want someone out there fighting for the team, mixing it up with media members. Steve Spurrier did that. It blends with a fan base that has an edge to it — sometimes a counterproductive edge, but an edge that gives it some meaning. Beamer just needs to stay on the good side of that fan base and show that in Year 3 he still has things progressing in the right direction. That doesn’t have to be a 10-win season, it just needs to be a continually competitive showing. Don’t get blown out more than a time or two. Beat the teams you’re supposed to beat. Beamer is still in the honeymoon phase, defined here as the “there’s still hope” phase, and if he leaves this season showing there’s still hope to be a really good program, then it’s a good season.

He’s had two tries at this, but will Florida AD Scott Stricklin face major pressure if Billy Napier and the Gators football program produces another average season this fall?

Moe J.

Stricklin is a well-liked guy within the SEC and is doing needed work at Florida to update facilities and other spending. But he’ll ultimately be judged on those major hires, principally football but also men’s basketball, where Todd Golden had the same record in his first year (16-17) that Mike White had at Georgia (16-16). But White improved the win total by 10, while Golden went backward from 20-14. Not great optics, but still too early to make any judgements.

Ditto for Napier, entering only his second year. I don’t really blame Stricklin for Dan Mullen, who was the no-brainer hire when Jim McElwain (whom Stricklin inherited) flamed out. Mullen had been an assistant at Florida and a successful head coach at Mississippi State, and it was fair for Stricklin, who had also come from Starkville, to think Mullen could win big at Florida with access to even better recruits. What Stricklin didn’t realize was Mullen thought he could still win with almost the same level of recruits he had at Mississippi State.

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Napier, as part of the Nick Saban coaching tree, won’t have that problem. He knows recruiting is important. But so did Will Muschamp, Jeremy Pruitt and Derek Dooley. As for Napier, this answer will sound a lot like the one on Beamer: He doesn’t need to beat Georgia or make a New Year’s Six bowl this year, but he needs to show hope. He needs to show improvement. And the schedule offers opportunity but also pitfalls: The opener is at Utah, the third week is at home against Tennessee and the fifth week is at Kentucky. All opportunities to prove the Gators are on the right path … or the opposite.

And with a new quarterback. Napier may need to hope whoever drafts Anthony Richardson sits him this year rather than risk having him look like the second coming of Josh Allen. Also not good optics. But whatever Richardson is doing in the NFL, if Napier can have a season where Florida is competitive against a very tough schedule (there also are trips to South Carolina, LSU and Missouri), then 8-4 is OK and 9-3 may be fantastic.

Which of the games with the new teams in the SEC conference you can’t wait? Any list you have – any top 5 ?

Grzegorz K.

Like … all of them? Diversity in scheduling is going to be wonderful for everyone, and although it was going to happen even without expansion, adding Texas and Oklahoma to the mix makes it even more wonderful. So the five most wonderful:

1. Texas at Texas A&M (duh)
2. Georgia at Oklahoma (the game we aren’t getting in 2023)
3. Texas at LSU (the return game, after LSU played at Texas in 2019, was canceled because of the COVID season.)
4. Georgia at Texas A&M (finally).
5. Tennessee at Texas (that’s a lot of orange, plus next year it could be Arch Manning vs. Nico Iamaleava. Not too shabby.)

(Photo: Peter Aiken / Getty Images)