Starting with Russell Wilson, the NFL’s best and worst QB contracts: Sando’s Pick Six

NFL Week 5 struggled to overcome what the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts put on the field Thursday night.

The misadventures of those teams’ offenses, and specifically of Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson in critical moments, further exposed what was supposed to be an all-time great Denver trade as a potential disaster.

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Wilson’s new contract with the Broncos runs through 2028, includes $165 million in guarantees and carries massive dead-money charges if Denver opts out early. The Broncos are all-in with Wilson whether they like it or not.

The Pick Six column stacks the best and worst contracts for 20 starting quarterbacks on veteran contracts, with Wilson’s situation prominently in mind. I’ve placed them all into buckets for a crystal-clear view of situations that can appear cloudy from afar. Only two quarterback contracts fit into the premium bucket, which I have labeled thusly: We know what we are getting, it is amazing, and these deals promote team flexibility so we can build a championship contender for the long term.

Wilson and three others fit into a more fraught category: We see elite upside with our quarterbacks, but there also are questions about what we are getting, and we’re in big trouble if our guy doesn’t play like a Tier 1-2 QB moving forward.

Only veteran contracts are considered here, because rookie deal parameters are uniform, as spelled out in the labor agreement. That’s why you won’t see the following starters categorized: Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett etc.

The full Pick Six menu this week:

• Best, worst veteran QB contracts
• Underrated key to Giants’ success
• Pack get what they didn’t pay for
• Mike Tomlin and the Chuck Noll challenge
• Should the Chargers have punted?
• Two-minute drill: Final thoughts

1. From Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes to Russell Wilson and all the others, the best and worst contracts for NFL veteran quarterbacks.

Twenty quarterbacks, and a bucket for every one of them. The best deals from a team standpoint reside at the top.

We know what we are getting, it is amazing, and these deals promote team flexibility so we can build a championship contender for long term.

These quarterbacks are essentially partners with their organizations.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: Allen got a strong deal, which was appropriate given his performance. The six-year length through 2028 helped Buffalo from a flexibility standpoint. Shorter deals are tougher to renegotiate when teams seek salary-cap flexibility for supplementing other spots on the roster.

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Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Mahomes’ 10-year structure gives the Chiefs’ maximum ability to move around money within the cap to address other areas. It’s a little surprising the team did not do something along those lines this past offseason, given that 2022 was the first year Mahomes’ cap charges became significant. Kansas City has less ability to escape this deal than the Bills would have escaping Allen’s deal, but Mahomes is so established as a superstar that it’s difficult to imagine such a scenario anytime soon.

We know what we are getting, it is mostly amazing, but the marriage is not perfect and this deal could put us behind the 8-ball quickly.

Just one resident in this category. It’s been a sometimes uneasy partnership between quarterback and team.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: Rodgers maxed out with a $50 million average per year on a deal running only through 2026. The team has very little flexibility. If Rodgers were to retire after this season, he’d leave on the table nearly $60 million, while Green Bay would absorb about $40 million in dead money.

We know what we are getting, it is mostly amazing, but there’s significant pain in 2023 almost no matter what happens.

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Brady’s deal carries $35 million in dead money next year. The team could push half that into 2023 if Brady retires or signs an extension. The way the roster is constructed, the Buccaneers could face a reckoning in 2023 regardless, with multiple players’ cap numbers swelling toward $20 million and higher.

We know what we are getting, it is pretty good, and we maintain flexibility beyond this season.

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders: The cap figure associated with Carr’s deal jumps from $19 million this season to $35 million next season if the Raiders stay the course without renegotiating. There would be only $5.6 million in dead money if the team decided to move on.

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We know what we are getting, it is pretty good, but these deals limit team flexibility significantly.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: Stafford can do more than Kirk Cousins in the dropback passing game. Some would say Stafford is significantly better than Cousins overall, one reason the Rams had little trouble signing Stafford to a four-year extension through 2026. But both players’ ceilings could be Tier 2. Both have deals limiting their teams’ options. Both need quite a bit of help to flourish.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: Cousins has had the Vikings in his grasp ever since the team signed him to a fully guaranteed three-year deal in 2018. The deal he signed in March carries $48.8 million in dead money next season.

We see elite upside with our quarterbacks, but there also are questions about what we are getting, and we’re in big trouble if our guy doesn’t play like a Tier 1-2 QB moving forward.

“These four guys are the most interesting, what their performance is at the end of the year, because they are all tied to their teams for the next year — if not, two or three or four — and if they are bad, their teams are going to be bad,” an exec from a team without a QB in this bucket said.

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: Watson hasn’t played in a regular-season game since 2020 and has been the subject of dozens of civil lawsuits alleging sexual assault. The Browns still signed him to a fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million deal.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: Here are the dead-money charges associated with the deal Wilson signed last month: $107 million (2023), $85 million (2024), $49.6 million (2025) and $31.2 million (2026). It’s not a terrible deal for the Broncos if Wilson plays at an elite level, but it’s been quite a while since Wilson has played that way. Denver has to be worried.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: The deal Murray signed no longer contains a clause requiring him to spend a specified amount of time preparing for games, but related perceptions linger, along with concerns over Murray’s ability to play well consistently and over a full season. Murray inexplicably spiking the ball on third-and-1 against Philadelphia on Sunday will not help those perceptions. Future dead money: $97.5 million (2023), $81.5 million (2024), $33.2 million (2025) and $20.2 million (2026).

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: Prescott was a consistent performer before missing time with two injuries. The Cowboys signed him to a player-friendly deal 18 months ago, with some heavy dead-cap numbers in the future, including $89 million (2023), nearly $40 million (2024) and $21.8 million (2025). A stronger Cowboys defense could help cover for any inability to elevate the team once Prescott returns.

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We know what we are getting, it is just OK, and these deals carry mild to moderate pain in 2023 if we move on after this season, which it looks like we might do.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: The previously high-flying Lions offense scored zero points against the Patriots on Sunday. There’s $10 million in dead money on Goff’s deal next season, which isn’t a big deal.

Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts: There are no indications so far this season Indy will want to continue with Ryan beyond this season. His deal carries $18 million in dead money next year.

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: How will the Titans feel about themselves and their quarterback after this season? Tannehill’s deal carries $18 million in dead money next year.

Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints: There’s $11.2 million in dead money on Winston’s deal next year. Can he play well enough when he returns from injury for the Saints to seek an extension?

We know what we are getting, it is just OK, but we can move on painlessly after this season, which people think we might do.

Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers: Garoppolo dropped his APY to $7 million this season with a chance to earn more with incentives. His deal runs through this season, with no future dead money.

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: Smith will belong in another classification if he continues playing the way he has played through five games. He’s been a revelation and is in position to earn a raise.

What we are getting is significantly flawed, but at least we can get out after this year without pain (and we likely will).

Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders: There’s no dead money associated with Wentz’s deal if the team moves on from him, but Washington does still owe a 2023 third-rounder to Indianapolis as part of the trade. Wentz is signed through 2024.

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Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons: Mariota is giving the Falcons a chance to win most weeks, which is more than some thought he could do. He’s signed through 2023 with less than $3 million in dead money if the team moves on.

Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers: Mayfield’s deal runs through this season, with no ramifications for 2023. Is there any upside at this point?

2. The Giants beat the Packers 27-22 in London. Here’s what stands out about them at 4-1.

First-time head coaches are faring well this season, but none of them, with the exception of Matt Eberflus in Chicago, inherited as little as Brian Daboll inherited with New York. Mike McDaniel has elite weaponry in Miami. Same for Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota. It’s not as clear what Nathaniel Hackett inherited in Denver, but we know he has implemented a flawed operation.

Competence can be so underrated, but it’s part of the difference between the Giants under Daboll and the Broncos with Hackett.

The Giants have a running quarterback in Daniel Jones playing on a bum ankle, with perimeter weaponry so pedestrian, not even the Packers are envious. The Giants do have an excellent running back in Saquon Barkley, and they now appear competent in key leadership spots: general manager, head coach, defensive coordinator. They seem to have solid game plans each week.

In fairness to the previous regime, the Giants were 3-2 and statistically stronger on defense in Jones’ final five starts last season. But the offense has been about a touchdown better per game through five Jones starts this season than it was during Jones’ final five starts last season.

The Giants beat Tennessee in the opener because Daboll, not liking his chances in overtime as the less talented team playing on the road, was willing to go for two late in the game after a touchdown pulled them within a point. Daboll had a two-point play ready for the situation that leveraged the two best things he has going on offense: Jones’ mobility and Barkley’s rushing. That’s good coaching.

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Jones, Barkley and the Giants were good on offense against the Packers. They finished with plus-12.6 expected points added (EPA) on offense, third-best for the Giants in 42 games with Jones in the lineup, according to TruMedia. Any game producing positive EPA is above average statistically. Here’s how many of those above-average games the Giants have produced on offense with Jones in the lineup, by head coach:

• Daboll: three times in five games
• Joe Judge: four times in 25 games
• Pat Shurmur: three times in 12 games

You might have noticed Sunday that NFL Network ran a graphic showing the Giants being outscored 85-0 in the final two minutes of first halves since 2020 Week 17. The challenge for the Giants in London was scoring in an end-of-half situation while using enough time to limit Aaron Rodgers’ opportunities following a kickoff.

The Giants did nothing spectacular from a game-management standpoint before the half. What they did was not screw it up — which, as any Broncos fan knows, can be underrated.

After getting a first down at the Green Bay 5 on a play that began at 2:45, the Giants took the clock down to the two-minute warning without another snap. They ran on first down, taking the clock to 1:22. Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka then called a double-reverse. Had it backfired, the Giants might have lost yards, but the clock would have run, robbing Rodgers of time or a timeout. The red-zone creativity worked. The Giants scored a touchdown and Rodgers had 1:15, which he used to get a field goal — not perfect for the Giants, but a net positive.

The Giants arguably could have done a better job at the end of the game. They knelt instead of running, which left Rodgers, master of the Hail Mary, with additional seconds after the Giants took an intentional safety. But if the Giants are going to keep putting themselves in position to win, they’ll get plenty more reps with their four-minute offense.

Solid stuff from the Giants.

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3. This was what the Packers signed up for when they made the decision to get worse at wide receiver.

So, the Packers’ defense isn’t as good as the team was hoping it would be. Nothing new there, and if you look at the EPA-per-game numbers, Green Bay is actually a little better on defense year-over-year, while losing 7.5 EPA per game on offense, a huge decline.

What’s alarming, but not surprising, is how limited the Packers appear at receiver when they need to win matchups. They have a $50 million-a-year quarterback throwing to discount-bin receivers. Every team but the Packers has a wide receiver or tight end earning more than $4 million per year. The Packers have 38-year-old Marcedes Lewis atop the pay hierarchy at $4 million.

If Rodgers is going to lobby for Lewis and Randall Cobb to have roles, there’s $8 million the front office could have spent for younger, more dynamic options. Still, the overall outlays at wideout are minimal. Even the Bears and Indianapolis Colts have guys earning more at those positions, as the table below shows by laying out the highest APY for every team at receiver and tight end.

Green Bay had fourth-and-1 from the New York 6 with a chance to tie or take the lead with a touchdown Sunday. Rodgers stood behind center and sized up the Giants’ defense. He tugged on his jersey up around his right shoulder, signaling something. It looked like vintage Rodgers — the outlaw cowboy barging through the Old West saloon’s swinging doors, nodding toward the man he’s about to take down. Except those were rubber bullets in the outlaw’s sidearm.

“That looked a lot better with Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Greg Jennings and James Jones,” a coach with NFC North experience said. “The guys he has now can’t get open the same and can’t make the really tough catches you sometimes need to win the games.”

The Giants covered Allen Lazard and batted down Rodgers’ pass. As great as Rodgers is, the Packers as currently configured might be better off running in those short-yardage situations.

It’s why, even before this game Sunday, former NFL executive of the year Randy Mueller advocated during our “Football GM Podcast” for the Packers to pursue Odell Beckham Jr. or another veteran receiver to bolster the ranks. Waiting on Sammy Watkins to return from a hamstring injury might not be enough.

4. The last time the Pittsburgh Steelers got blown out with any frequency, the sun was setting on Chuck Noll’s Hall of Fame tenure with the team. Are there parallels?

Noll posted 13 consecutive winning seasons from 1972-1984. During that time, Pittsburgh rarely lost by 10-plus points — never more than twice in a season except for 1986, when it happened three times. But as Noll’s tenure wound down, his teams lost by at least that much five times in 1988, five in 1989, five in 1990 and four in 1991, his final season. Things were slipping away.

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Tomlin has never had a losing record in 15 seasons as Steelers head coach. But at 1-4 this season following a 38-3 defeat at Buffalo on Sunday, the Steelers can no longer take for granted their success. Tomlin’s teams never lost by double digits more than three times in any of his first 14 seasons, except for in 2016, when it happened four times. Pittsburgh suffered five such defeats last season. The Steelers have two double-digit losses in five games this season, with Tampa Bay and Philadelphia on the schedule over the next three weeks.

Things might not be slipping away from Tomlin, but the Steelers’ stability doesn’t run as deep as it once did. Owner Dan Rooney died in 2017. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger retired after last season. General manager Kevin Colbert retired after the 2022 draft.

Can Tomlin drive high-level success in the future if the organizational infrastructure has eroded? Tomlin is only 50 years old, and is widely regarded as one of the NFL’s top coaches. He’s on a Hall of Fame trajectory.

But if Tomlin enjoys meaningful success after turning 50, he’ll separate himself from his Hall of Fame predecessors.

Noll, after posting a 117-72-1 record (.618) before age 50, had a 76-76 record thereafter. Terry Bradshaw’s decline and retirement had something to do with the downturn.

Cowher retired after going 149-90-1 (.623) through his age-49 season. He presumably could have kept winning if he’d remained in the role with Roethlisberger entering his prime years.

Tomlin was 154-85-2 (.643) before age 50. He is 1-4 since then and just getting started with a new quarterback in Kenny Pickett. Tomlin’s past has been glorious. He can further cement his legacy if the next chapter in Pittsburgh is anything like the one that is clearly over now.

5. Chargers coach Brandon Staley went for it on fourth-and-1 from his own 45 with 1:13 remaining and his team leading 30-28. His rationale didn’t make great sense to me.

Coaches dream about finishing games with a series of handoffs up the gut for 4-yard gains that the opponent knows are coming but are helpless to stop. It’s difficult to fault Staley for aspiring to that against Cleveland on Sunday, but it’s much easier to fault the manner in which he tried to accomplish that in this game. First, though, we should acknowledge that some fourth-down decision-making models designed to reduce guesswork supported Staley’s decision.

—> LAC (30) @ CLE (28) <—
LAC has 4th & 1 at the LAC 46

Recommendation (YOU BETTER DO THIS): 👉 Go for it (+11.7 WP)
Actual play: 👉 (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to M.Williams (M.Emerson).

— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) October 9, 2022

Chargers 4th-and-1 on own 46 with 1:13 left

WP Go: 84.1%
WP Punt: 78.9%

Model agreed with Brandon Staley's decision to go for it. Believe TV said 4th-and-2 but play by play says 4th-and-1.

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 9, 2022

Next Gen Stats recommended a Chargers punt, citing the actual distance to go for a first down as 1.7 yards. Differentiating between fourth-and-inches and fourth-and-a-long-1 is critical in evaluating these situations.

According to the NGS Decision Guide, Brandon Staley made the suboptimal call by going for it on 4th & 1 from the Chargers own 46 with 1:14 left in regulation:

🔹 Actual Yards to Go: 1.7
🔹 Recommendation: Punt by 0.2% ❌

The Chargers still won, 30-28.#LACvsCLE | #BoltUp

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 9, 2022

The problem with the decision is that the Chargers led by only two points, so turning over the ball on downs with 1:10 remaining meant Cleveland, a team with a dominant rushing attack, could run or pass on first down, with even a 5-yard gain putting the Browns in position to attempt the winning field-goal try. Cade York, the Browns’ kicker, made a 58-yarder to beat Carolina in Week 1. After the Chargers failed on fourth-and-1.7 Sunday, Cleveland passed incomplete on first down, gained 10 yards on a second-down pass and tried a 54-yard field goal with 16 seconds left. The kick missed, or else who knows what injured Chargers receiver Keenan Allen might have said.

Keenan Allen was going through it at the end of Chargers-Browns 😬

— PFF (@PFF) October 9, 2022

“Just wanted to finish the game with the ball,” Staley explained afterward. “We liked the play, liked the matchup, knew what coverage they were going to be in and we wanted to finish the game on our terms. … It just didn’t go down for us. But I had a lot of confidence in our defense to go out there and get them stopped. That was a big motive because we knew they would have to throw the ball to beat us, and we felt like we could cover.”

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There can be risk in parsing coaches’ postgame comments regarding game management because, many times, they won’t reveal their true motivations, both for strategic reasons and to avoid undermining confidence in their own teams.

“If you think your defense is good enough to contain Jacoby Brissett,” a coach with more than 20 years of NFL experience said, “then you should really feel good about it when you punt them down to the 15.”

I asked a younger exec with a background in analytics what he thought about the decision. He hated the decision, theorizing that Staley was eager to convert the fourth down because he didn’t trust his defense without the injured Joey Bosa. Staley obviously wouldn’t say such a thing publicly if he believed it.

Another exec with game-management experience called the decision against Cleveland gray for the Chargers, but said he would have leaned toward punting. He also noted that the Chargers won with a successful fourth-down go-for-it in their own territory against Houston last week.

We can add this one to the John Harbaugh and Matt Eberflus decisions from last week, where there’s room for disagreement.

6. Two-minute drill: Final thoughts

Did the Baltimore Ravens need that 19-17 comeback victory against Cincinnati or what? They had gone 0-6 in games decided by three or fewer points since Week 13 last season, after winning seven of those games successively over the 2019, 2020 and most of the 2021 season. …

The New York Jets are 3-2, which is great for them, but check out who they’ve beaten: Cleveland with backup Jacoby Brissett at quarterback; Pittsburgh with the about-to-be-benched Mitch Trubisky at quarterback; and Miami with Teddy Bridgewater (for one pass attempt) and then Skyler Thompson behind center. The Jets face teams with Rodgers, Wilson and Josh Allen over the next month. How will they fare? …

The Los Angeles Rams have played 96 regular-season and postseason games since Sean McVay became head coach. Their offensive performances against Buffalo in Week 1, San Francisco last week and Dallas in a 22-10 defeat Sunday rank 86th, 87th and 88th from an EPA standpoint. Each was about two touchdowns worse than an average NFL performance.

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Facing tough defenses is part of that equation. Carolina, San Francisco and Tampa Bay are next on the schedule for the Rams, with New Orleans and Kansas City on the schedule soon after that. McVay surely would not complain if games against Arizona (Week 10) and Seattle (Week 13) arrived early.

McVay said the Rams must do more to help Matthew Stafford. Last year at this time, Stafford had seven additional touchdowns and four fewer interceptions. He has more picks than touchdowns through five games for the first time since 2015. …

Only the Colts, Rams and Buccaneers have lost more ground than Dallas has lost offensively from last season to this season on an EPA per game standpoint. The Cowboys are 4-1 regardless thanks to a defense that has not allowed more than 20 points in a game.

The defense-and-running-game setup in Dak Prescott’s absence has seen the Cowboys shift to the run twice as hard as any team in the league since 2021. Dallas passed 53 percent of the time on early downs in the first 28 minutes of regulation last season, which was near league average. The rate is below 40 percent this season, barely ahead of San Francisco, which is 32nd. That works well when the defense is playing as well as the Cowboys’ defense is playing. …

Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell said his team couldn’t get quarterback Jared Goff in rhythm during what had to be a disheartening 29-0 defeat at New England.

The Patriots are now 3-1 against Goff and have shut him down every time, losing only when the Goff-led 2020 Rams put together an elite defensive performance.

Goff in four career starts against Bill Belichick and the Patriots: 52% completions, 5.8 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, five interceptions, 59.0 passer rating, minus-0.3 EPA per pass play, 11 sacks, 30 quarterback hits.

The Lions are only one game better in the standings than they were at this point last season, heading into their bye week before facing Dallas, Miami and Green Bay. …

The Tennessee Titans have the same 3-2 record they had last season at this point, despite averaging six fewer points per game on offense. Can they hang around and improve under coach Mike Vrabel, making another run at the playoffs? It’s what they do.

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Tennessee held Washington to 1-of-11 conversions on third down, two weeks after holding the Raiders to 1-of-12. The Commanders and Raiders were a combined 1-for-11 on third down with six or fewer yards to go in those games.

As for winning, Vrabel had this to say at his postgame news conference: “We know how to do that.”

A big concern: Opponents have pressured Ryan Tannehill on 41 percent of his pass plays, according to Pro Football Focus. Only the Giants’ Jones and the Bears’ Justin Fields have been pressured at higher rates. The rate was 35 percent for Tannehill last season and about 30 percent in each of the two seasons before that.

One big change for Tennessee this season, in A.J. Brown’s absence: One-third of the team’s explosive pass plays (16-plus-yard gains) have come when targeting running backs. That is up from 12 percent last season and 4 percent in 2020. No other team is higher than 21 percent this season (49ers). …

Rough game for Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence in a 13-6 home loss to the Houston Texans. The terrible second-down decision on the interception in the end zone wasn’t all of it. Lawrence missed early throws way high. Five drops by his receivers further detracted from the aesthetic. One note: Coach Doug Peterson mentioned the Texans’ Cover 2 defense as a factor in the inability to hit big plays. This was only the second career game for Lawrence in which he faced Cover 2 predominantly, according to PFF via TruMedia. The other was against Houston in Week 1 last season, Lawrence’s debut game.

(Top illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photo: Brandon Sloter / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)