Tiger by the Tail: Previewing the 2009 Detroit Tigers | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors

I have to share a recent and recurring nightmare I've had with you all...

It starts out so well.  My beloved Detroit Tigers have brought in a huge superstar to go with a team that was just one year removed from a World Series appearance.  All the experts are raving about the Tigers and the baseball world is simply trying to figure out who the Tigers will be playing in the Fall Classic.

And that's where this nightmare begins.  The Tigers stumbled out of the gate in 2008 with an 0-7 record (six of those being at home), and simply never recovered.  If the season could be described in two words it would be "Murphy's Law".  Stars had disastrous years (Justin Verlander and Gary Sheffield), stalwarts went down like lame horses (Jeremy Bonderman and Carlos Guillen), and the "future" wasn't realized for various reasons (Joel Zumaya and Dontrelle Willis).  If it weren't for Miguel Cabrera and Armando Galarraga, the Tigers would've been closer to 100 losses than 90 losses.

I still wake up with a feeling of despair every now and then.

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Herein lies the beauty of the greatest sport in the world; each spring optimism is rejuvenated, much like the flower blossoms that signal the beginning of a new baseball season.

I'm pulling a card here, and it's called "let's forget last year." The perfect storm of destruction is all behind us now.  There's simply no possible way that the same type of bad luck can haunt this team two years in a row (only the Cubs can claim otherwise).

Early returns of spring training have been overwhelmingly positive for every major player on this team.  Until I hear otherwise, I will assume that everyone is not only healthy, but will produce their career means, at the very least.

Let's take a look at the different areas of this team.  As it is with every team, success starts with pitching.

Starting rotation

This is what early projections look like:

1. Justin Verlander

2. Armando Galarraga

3. Jeremy Bonderman

4. Edwin Jackson

5. Dontrelle Willis/Nate Robertson/Zach Miner

We've all seen what players like Verlander, Bonderman, and Willis can do when they're right—which are numbers that can put them in the Cy Young talk.  Out of these, Verlander is the most sure bet.  He's simply too talented to have a repeat of last year.  I have the most confidence in him returning to '06 and '07 form, especially with new pitching coach Rick Knapp in the fold for tutelage.  Bonderman's health issues have been addressed, and he should be able to regain his form as well (provided that he develops his changeup and the confidence to throw it). 

Willis is a huge question mark.  Manager Jim Leyland has been impressed so far this spring, and D-Train is an eternal optimist, but last year did nothing to regain the trust of the fan.  Willis will need to show drastic improvement immediately to have any chance at gaining a spot in the rotation.  If he falters, Robertson or Miner will step in to the backend of the rotation.

There are a lot of similarities between Galarraga and Jackson.  Both had very strong seasons that weren't quite expected.  While Jackson was the more celebrated prospect, Galarraga really came out of nowhere (acquired from the Texas Rangers).  Both also faltered a little bit towards the end of 2008, which can most likely be contributed to fatigue on both sides.  At age 27, the hope is that Galarraga will fully realize his potential and be an innings-eater this season.  Jackson, who was acquired from the Rays last year, fills a huge spot in the rotation.  His power arm will fit in nicely with this staff.

Of course, the more rabid fans are just chomping at the bit until Rick Porcello graces the mound at Comerica Park.  Leyland will not rush Porcello, but it's hard to hold back on this kind of potential.  If the rotation experiences the issues from 2008, don't be surprised if Porcello is called up to fill the ranks.  As it stands, he should be joining the rotation in 2010 at the latest, and that is great news for Tigers fans everywhere.

At the very least, the starters should be able to shave at least a half run off of last year's team ERA.  The starters should also get deeper into games, helping to preserve the relief pitching over the course of the season.

There is no question that relief pitching was a flat out train wreck for Detroit in 2008. The bullpen blew 28 saves last year; had they converted just half of those, they would've had the same record as the White Sox and Twins did.  Injuries to Todd Jones and Joel Zumaya robbed this team of two huge pieces, and they simply couldn't be replaced.  Combine that with Fernando Rodney having his worst season since 2003, and there's your recipe for disaster.

Todd Jones has since retired.  Zumaya has progressed as well as can be expected (and he still has his velocity, thankfully).  Rodney is in a contract year; one can only hope that alone will bring out better production from him.  The Tigers also brought in Brandon Lyon from Arizona this offseason.  Lyon had a tremendous start to 2008, at one point going 24 appearances without allowing a run.  The second half of the season wasn't nearly as kind though as he eventually lost the closer role.

Here's another if coming.  IF these three produce average numbers, the Tigers pen will be light years ahead of last year's.  Competition breeds competence, so the hope here is that one of these three will grab the closer role by the horns and run with it, while the other two take the seventh and eighth inning roles and create a suddenly strong endgame for the Tigers.

Middle relief should be provided from the remaining players: Clay Rapada, Bobby Seay, Zach Miner (should he lose the competition for the starting spot), Freddy Dolsi, and Macay McBride.  Truthfully, none of these names really inspire a ton of confidence, but if all goes well with the starters and the back-end of the bullpen, these pitchers won't be needed all that often. (I am crossing my fingers too, don't worry!)

In terms of farm system help, there are a couple names to remember: Ryan Perry and Cody Satterwhite.  These two are looked upon as the future of the Tigers bullpen.  Both could contribute at some point this year, but are more likely to not be major factors until 2010.

Another big letdown was the defense for the Tigers last season.  Detroit committed the fifth most errors in the league.  Before you shrug off the importance of defense, know that last year's World Series teams were both in the top 10 defensively.

Many players played out of position last year, and there was simply no continuity.  Cabrera came in as a poor defender and was moved to first base. Cabrera's arrival forced Inge into a utility role before Inge settled in as the catcher.  Guillen started the season at first base, but was moved to third base.  Injuries to Granderson, Polanco, and Guillen forced other players to step into roles that they weren't comfortable with.

Luckily General Manager Dave Dombrowski put some emphasis on improving the team's defense in the offseason.  The acqusition of Gerald Laird not only shores up the catcher spot, but it also allows Brandon Inge and his highlight reel glove back to third base.  Edgar Renteria and his limited range at shortstop were allowed to walk, and he was replaced by Adam Everett—another very gifted defender.  Guillen moves out to left field, which isn't really any better or worse than last year's solutions out there.

This isn't a superior defense by any stretch, but all this team needs to be in the field is average for it to make a huge difference from game to game.

The only real bright spot last year for the Tigers was their hitting, and even that underachieved a great deal.  Many experts pegged Detroit to threaten the 1,000 run mark; they fell short with 821, which was still good for fifth-most in the league.

Injuries again played a huge role in the offensive production, as Sheffield, Granderson, Guillen, Polanco all missed time.  Players like Pudge Rodriguez (who was traded midseason), Inge, Renteria, and even Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez all didn't quite perform to what was projected.

Here's what the lineup for 2009 should look like:

1. Curtis Granderson

2. Placido Polanco

3. Gary Sheffield

4. Miguel Cabrera

5. Magglio Ordonez

6. Carlos Guillen

7. Gerald Laird

8. Brandon Inge

9. Adam Everett

There's not too many teams that can match up with the Tigers 1-6 spots.  Each of those guys are a handful for opposing pitching staffs when healthy. Spots 7-9 do raise some questions.

Remember what I stated early on during this article about forgetting last year?  Well, I'm applying again right now.  If you take a look at 2007 numbers for hitters' 1-6, you will see some monster numbers.  Take a look:

Granderson: .302 BA, 122 runs scored, 84 extra base hits, .913 OPS, 26 SB

Polanco: .341 BA, 105 runs scored, 200 hits, 30 K's

Sheffield: 107 runs scored, 84 walks, 25 HR's, 75 RBI's (missed 29 games)

Cabrera: .320 BA, 34 HR's, 119 RBI's, .965 OPS (with Florida)

Ordonez: .363 BA, 117 run scored, 216 hits, 54 doubles, 28 HR's, 139 RBI's, 1.029 OPS

Guillen: .296 BA, 21 HR's, 102 RBI's, 13 SB's, .502 SLG

That's top notch production right there.  Various issues for each player contributed to lower production in 2008.  Realistically, I don't expect any of these six to match what they did in 2007 (except for maybe Granderson and Cabrera).  But I do expect most if not all to be closer to these numbers than the 2008 numbers.

As far as the rest of the lineup goes, it's not as bad as it may look.  Laird is a competent hitter who most people think may have been affected by the miserable summers in Texas as a catcher, leading to his tailoff in production in the second half of previous seasons.  Detroit summers are not nearly as bad, and Leyland will do as much as possible to keep Laird fresh by inserting backup Matt Treanor at regular intervals.

Inge hasn't come close to matching his numbers in 2006, when he put up .253/27/83.  But he really hit rock bottom last year, going .205/11/51.  A tumultuous spring had a lot to do with this, as he was uprooted from third base, a position he loves and plays with pride.  His return to third, along with some tweaks to his mechanics (watch his hands people, you will see a noticeable difference) should lead to numbers that approach the 2006 line.

Everett was definitely not brought in for his offense.  But he may be able to bring something back to Motown that hasn't been seen in ages; the bunt single.  Having him at the bottom of the lineup will put pressure on opposing pitchers to get him out before getting back to the top of the lineup.  I see the potential for some tight pitching here, and some walks issued.

As far as the bench is concerned, OF Marcus Thames, IF Ramon Santiago, and C Matt Treanor are locks.  Players such as Jeff Larish, Brent Clevlen, Mike Hessman, Michael Holliman, Ryan Raburn, and Clete Thomas will fill in the gaps and cover any injuries that may occur.  Better than average bench here, which is critical for Leyland's style of providing consistent rest for his regulars.

The Detroit Tigers were humbled by last year's nightmarish season.  The sense of entitlement that infected the clubhouse has been crushed, and players have come into spring looking healthy, fit, and motivated.  The players aren't the only ones feeling the heat; Leyland was not given a contract extension, and he fully acknowledges that a repeat of last year will result in him being out of a job.

This team has a lot of question marks, but it also has a lot of potential.  It's really the only team in the league that people can see either losing 90 games or winning the whole thing. 

IF the starters can eat some innings, IF the bullpen can stay healthy and regain it's edge, IF the defense is merely average, and IF the offense can stay on the field, you've got a serious contender here.

What I do know is that IF all those things come true, I will sleep much better at night.